The UFC returns to what should be a ruckus crowd in Manchester, England, this Saturday. The current card is full of great fights from top to bottom, headlined by current Welterweight Champion Leon Edwards vs. number one contender Belal Muhammad.
As mentioned, there are a number of great matchups to look at before we hit the top of the card, so let's see what best bets to place before the fights kick off at 6 PM EST.
Best Bet: Muhammad Mokaev ML -155 (DraftKings)
Mokaev takes on respected striker Manel Kape on the early prelims. Mokaev has made his living in the UFC by out grappling his opponents, and I expect him to do the same against Kape.
Kape may have some early success defending takedowns, but Mokaev is the toughest grappler that Kape has faced since current Flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja only attempted 1 takedown in their matchup.
Look for Mokaev to eventually take advantage of Kape's inactivity by pushing forward until he grabs ahold of a leg. It should be his fight to lose the moment he scores his first takedown.
Top Parlay: Elliott vs. Parsons o1.5 rds AND Bukauskas vs. Prachnio o1.5 rds -118 (Bet365)
Our top parlay this week will feature a pair of two alt-overs in the Welterweight and Light Heavyweight divisions. Both matchups feature a pair of fighters that have similar fighting styles, which could make for a slow start.
Oban Elliott and Preston Parsons both like to grapple with Parsons being the more polished striker of the two. Both also have great chins but can have cardio issues as the fight pushes longer. I see them having a grappling stalemate early on before we see their cardio play a part later. From there, both should slow down enough for us to get over 1.5 rounds.
Our second leg features fighters who are also similar but are strikers. Bukauskas has a kickboxing background, while Prachnio likes to use his karate kick-heavy style to outpoint his opponents.
Bukauskas prefers to stay at a further range to look for countershots, and Prachnio is not known to put himself in danger much. Instead, Prachnio should look to use his calf kicks in an attempt to immobilize the longer Bukauskas. 4 of their last 5 have gone over this mark for each. I expect the same for their prelim clash on Saturday.
Top Underdog: Gregory Rodrigues ML +122 (Caesars)
Although Gregory Rodrigues enters this fight on short notice, I like his chances against up-and-coming prospect Christian Leroy Duncan. This is by far Duncan's toughest test to date, as he comes in with a 3-1 UFC record.
Duncan is a prolific striker, using his long frame to hit opponents from range. He has an unorthodox style and likes to use spinning attacks to keep his opponents guessing. However, I think his approach could land him in trouble against the world-class jiu-jitsu that Rodrigues brings.
Since being knocked out two fights ago, Rodrigues has gone back to his grappling roots with one ground-and-pound stoppage and scoring multiple takedowns in his previous fight against an opponent that was known for having good takedown defense. He can also have one-punch knockout power, but I can't think of a better situation for him to continue to show off his high-level grappling. I think he eventually catches Duncan in a bad spot where he can take him down and finish him.
Best Prop: Leon Edwards Round 4, 5, or by Decision -125 (FanDuel)
Our main event this week is a highly anticipated rematch between Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad. Their first clash ended as a no-contest after Muhammad suffered an eye poke early in the second round.
There's no doubt that both fighters have improved since then, but I expect more of the same from the first round of their original matchup, where Edwards was finding success striking with Muhammad. Edwards hasn't lost a fight since his 2015 loss to former champion Kamaru Usman. He responded by beating Usman twice and also has victories over top names Colby Covington and Nate Diaz around them.
Meanwhile, Muhammad's climb has looked good on paper, but he's faced fighters that had holes to exploit. Seeing that Edwards has no real weaknesses in his game, I don't see Muhammad's point fighter style being successful against the current number 4 pound-for-pound UFC champion. Expect Edwards to stuff many of Muhammad's takedowns and exploit him on the feet using his long frame for either a late stoppage or a unanimous decision win.
