International Fight Week is among us, and UFC 303 headlines the week of festivities on Saturday, 6 PM EST. A Conor McGregor injury has led to a highly anticipated rematch between Light Heavyweight Champion Alex Pereira and Jiří Procházka.
Check out our pick for the main event and others below. We'll dive into the live odds, top props, and all of our best bets. Good luck and enjoy the action!
Top Parlay: Andrei Arlovski vs. Martin Buday o1.5 AND Michelle Waterson vs. Gillian Robertson o1.5 -136 (Bet365)
Let's take a set of overs in the two early prelims fights. I like this from both a numbers and fighter-style standpoint. Combining each fighter's UFC records, their fights have gone over 1.5 73% of the time.
The two heavyweights lack power, and the favorite Buday likes to push his cardio advantage on his opponents. Additionally, Arlovski just isn't the KO threat he used to be. I think he competes for as long as his gas tank allows him to and retires after back-to-back decision losses.
I expect some early grappling for our second leg in the parlay. Both Waterson and Robertson have poor striking, so expect minimal action before one of them shoots. Waterson will be the more aggressive of the two on the feet, but I don't fear either's ability to end this one early unless they get caught in a bad spot on the mat.
Joe Pyfer by KO, TKO, DQ, or Sub +115 (Bet365)
Middleweight prospect Joe Pyfer looks to get back on track after suffering a loss to Jack Hermansson earlier this year. He'll take on Canada's Marc-Andre Barriault in the featured prelim bout.
Barriault will be down to strike and that's exactly why I like the heavy favorite Pyfer to get the job done by finish. 11 of Pyfer's 12 wins have come by such, and the books favor this one to end before the final horn.
Pyfer will arguably be the hardest-hitting opponent Barriault has faced thus far. I'm also not impressed with the 5 wins Barriault has in the UFC. The combined UFC records of the opponents he beat are 16-22, and I can't help but think of his KO loss to Chidi Njokuani, where he was put away in 16 seconds.
Even if Pyfer fights more timidly since he ran out of steam in his last fight, he still has the one-touch power to put Barriault away at any moment. I think he does just that to get back in the win column.
Diego Lopes ML -135
A familiar story this year, the young prospect takes on a battle-tested vet in this week's co-main. I'm going against recent history and taking Lopes.
I've seen Brian Ortega take too much damage on the feet recently not to fade him here. Lopes is coming off two TKO wins against lesser talent, but he has legit power and the grappling to keep this standing.
I will say that I don't like the amount of times I've seen Lopes taken down in his short time with the company. Ortega is not the guy to chase subs with. Lopes should use his top-level jiu-jitsu to keep this fight up, where I think he'll land the more damaging shots.
Alex Pereira by KO, TKO, DQ, or Sub +110 (DraftKings)
Rematches are tricky, but let's not overthink this. Jiří Procházka is known to have poor defense with his unorthodox style. As a result, the better striker, Pereira, caught him in the second round of their first matchup. If you need further proof of Jiri getting hit clean, watch his most recent fight against Aleksandar Rakić at UFC 300.
If Jiri further committed to grappling in the second round of their first fight, I would be hesitant to back the champ. However, he abandoned it, so signs point to this being another kickboxing matchup.
I'll take plus money on the guy who has made a pretty good living off knocking guys out on the feet. I like Poatan to score another finish within the first 3.
