Noche UFC Betting Preview: Best Bets and DFS Plays for Saturday, September 13

UFC Noche weekend is here as the UFC brings another action-packed card to San Antonio, Texas, at the Frost Bank Center. This event lines up with Mexican Independence Day, which will take place on Tuesday, September 16th. With a charged atmosphere, this is always one of the best cards of the year!

The main event showcases a featherweight clash between Diego Lopes and Jean Silva, while the co-main adds excitement as veteran Rob Font takes on rising prospect David Martinez in the bantamweight division. Elsewhere on the main card, Jared Gordon meets Rafa Garcia in what looks like a grinding lightweight battle, and Kelvin Gastelum returns once again to face Dustin Stoltzfus.

Spotlight on the Main Event: Diego Lopes vs. Jean Silva

The headline fight between Diego Lopes and Jean Silva places two of the most exciting featherweights on the roster against each other. Whoever wins this fight will be signing a contract to fight for the belt the next time around. Lopes comes into this matchup with an edge in UFC experience, but will that matter against an instinctual killer like Jean Silva?

The fighting nerds have been taking it on the chin in recent fights as the other three (Prates, Borralho, & Ruffy) have all added losses to their record in 2025. Lopes has a well-rounded game, displayed by his 10 knockout wins and 12 submission wins; he can win a fight wherever it takes place. He recently tested himself at the highest level vs one of the all-time greats in Volkanovski, which should prove valuable here.

Jean Silva has been nothing short of electric since arriving in the UFC. He has finished every opponent he has faced inside the UFC, mixing crisp striking with relentless pressure. The last time he made a decision was in the DWCS against a very tough Kevin Vallejos. Now he has to go possibly 5 rounds with a more experienced fighter.

Stylistically, this fight shapes up as a classic striker versus grappler battle, though both fighters have versatile games. Lopes has the reach and grappling edge, and I don’t expect him to want to exchange strikes on the feet for five rounds. Silva will work under pressure and look to find finishing shots.

Silva is coming off a submission victory over Bryce Mitchell, and while Silva has shown to have a nice guillotine, I would be shocked if he catches Lopes in a submission. This will be a war Saturday night as both fighters look to climb into the title conversation. Lopes over +200 is hard to ignore, while it’s equally hard to believe all four fighting nerds will lose in 2025.

Best Underdog: David Martinez (+110, Bet365)

Going against Rob Font is not a bet I take lightly. He is one of the most durable fighters the UFC has seen. Having said that, everyone’s durability eventually fades. In 19 UFC fights, Font has only been finished one time by submission, while going 12-7 in the UFC. Font has lost four of his last seven fights, winning two straight.

Font will have the reach advantage and has an average fight time of over 13 minutes. While both land over 5.4 significant strikes per minute, Font absorbs almost 1 more significant strike with a much poorer striking defense. Font should respect Martinez’s power, and he has shown the ability to find takedowns, which should be part of his game plan here.

David Martinez, though unknown, has hammers for fists, and he will look to damage and find the kill shot on Font. Martinez, though in lesser promotions, has shown an ability to go three and four rounds and still work to find a KO shot.

As a slight underdog with the Mexican crowd behind him he can show out again just as he did in Mexico back in March. Font has been a fixture in the division for a while, we’ve seen him take damage over recent fights, and he may be running into the young buck at the wrong time.

Parlay: Zachary Reese ML + Jared Gordon ML (-101, DraftKings)

Another play I like is a parlay of Zachary Reese and Jared Gordon. Gordon may be my favorite bet on the entire card, and he could very well be 5-0 in his last five fights. He has been robbed at least once, if not twice, and I think he gets it done here.

Gordon is a grinder with excellent cardio who can knock you out on the feet, or grapple on the mat when needed. He is coming off a very early KO win over Thiago Moises, and I expect a longer fight in this one.

His opponent Rafa Garcia is dangerous in the submission game but can fade as fights wear on. Garcia is 5-4 in the promotion, coming off a decision victory vs 50-year-old Vinc Pichel, and while Gordon needs to be mindful of submission attempts, Garcia has lost to everyone better than him and I don’t see that changing here.

Zachary Reese is someone I do not trust a ton as we have seen him drop the ball more than once while taking very bad fighters to decisions. Reese has shown finishing skills which could be in line vs a troubles Sedriques Dumas. Dumas has had legal troubles, financial troubles, and cannot be 100% focused in these spots.

Dumas has three UFC losses, all by finish. Dumas has had issues defending grappling pressure and I think that’s where Reese will look to take this fight. Dumas is coming off a KO loss and has lost by KO in two of his last three fights. He should look to avoid the KO which I believe will help Reese find a submission finish.

I also played these two underlying bets, at (+300) Reese by Submission has strong upside, while Gordon by Decision at (-125) looks to have some value as I don’t expect him to finish Garcia, but I do expect him to finally find a majority decision.

DFS Underdog: David Martinez Higher 60.5 Significant Strikes + Tatiana Suarez Lower 3.5 Takedowns (3x Payout)

Let’s look at Underdog to see if we can find some value for Saturday night. David Martinez landing more than 60.5 significant strikes feels realistic given his output and the style of fight expected with Font. Font has allowed 50%, four of his last eight opponents to hit this mark, three of those fighters have more of a grappling/wrestling preference over striking.

If this fight reaches the 3rd round, I expect Martinez to have 80+ significant strikes unless Font keeps him pressed against the cage, or this fight sees the mat for extended periods. Martinez has a strong base, and I believe he will fend off most take down attempts. If he can avoid a Font KO shot, we should get high volume from both fighters.

Tatiana Suarez is a dominant grappler, but since the ultimate fighter she has surpassed this mark just three fights. Lemos has fought other very solid grapplers/wrestlers in Jandiroba and Dern and only allowed 1 takedown to them. In Lemos’s last thirteen fights she was only taken down more than this one time by champ Weili, who we just saw walk right through Suarez.