If you scanned the Euro 2024 Group play schedule when it was released, Thursday, June 20th was a date you highlighted. The action starts with a pivotal Group C matchup between Slovenia vs Serbia at 9 AM. Serbia dropped its opener against England and Slovenia drew with Denmark, meaning both sides come in thinking they need to pick up 3 points in this game.
At noon, Denmark will take on England with both sides looking to bounce back from disappointing second-half performances in the first game of group play. England entered as the betting favorites for the tournament but didn't look deserving of that title in the second half against Serbia.
Finally, at 3 PM is a classic matchup between two European powerhouses as Spain takes on Italy. The two sides sit tied atop Group B with 3 points, meaning the winner here will make it 6-for-6 and will advance to the Round of 16.
Slovenia vs. Serbia (Munich; 3 PM Local / 9 AM EDT)
Denmark vs. England (Frankfurt; 6 PM Local / Noon EDT)
Spain vs. Italy (Gelsenkirchen; 9 PM Local / 3 PM EDT)
Denmark vs England
Moneyline Odds: Denmark (+450) | Draw (+270) | England (-150)
Prediction: England Win (2-1)
Best Bet: England ML (-150)
Favorite Prop: Foden to Score (+300)
Christian Eriksen gave Denmark an early lead against Slovenia, but a second-half equalizer and ultimate draw put a ton of pressure on the Danes as they head into this match with England. With Hojlund and Wind, they will attack England's defense but have to be careful not to let this game open up too much.
On the other side, the Three Lions dominated the first half against Serbia, but have had to hear about their poor play in the second half for the past 4 days and will be eager to play better here.
To us, this is a worst-case scenario for Denmark, who would have been happy to catch a confident England side off guard. We think England wins in regular time here and expect the total to go over 3 goals with either a 2-1 or 3-1 final score.
Spain vs Italy
Moneyline Odds: Spain (+115) | Draw (+220) | Italy (+275)
Prediction: Spain Win (2-1)
Best Bet: Over 2.5 Goals (+120)
Favorite Prop: Yamal to Score or Assist (+170)
The 2024 Euros have been entertaining, but Spain vs Italy in the late timeslot is the first banger matchup we've seen. This will be a highly-contested game between two of the best teams in Europe.
Looking at the current World Rankings, Spain sits 8th with Italy right behind them at 9th. Spain is a decent moneyline favorite at +110, while most bookmakers have a regular time moneyline price of +275 for Italy.
There are some key betting trends to consider with our 2-1 prediction.
First, there have been at least 3 goals scored in each of Spain's last 4 games. Not only does the la Roja attack look better with players like Williams, Olmo, and Yamal who can run and win 1-on-1 situations, but they are willing to concede possession to create those opportunities. As we predicted heading into this tournament, Lamine Yamal looks poised to be the breakout star of Euro 2024.
Second, Italy has scored in 13 of its last 15 games. David Frattesi, Lorenzo Pellegrini, and Federico Chiesa are all capable goal-scoring threats for Italy. If Spain is willing to concede possession to the Italians, they will find a way onto the scoresheet.
Each of the last 2 matches between these sides has finished 2-1 in Spain's favor, and we think that trend will move to 3 in a row on Thursday. At +120, we like over 2.5 goals as our best bet for the match.
