What Prediction Markets Are Saying About This Weekend’s Biggest Sports Storylines

Saturday night in Las Vegas has turned into appointment viewing for more than just diehard MMA fans, and the prediction markets are confirming what the group chats have been saying for weeks: everybody’s watching, and almost nobody thinks Conor McGregor wins.

Setting the Scene for Fight Week

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 goes down July 11 at T-Mobile Arena, with McGregor making his first walk to the Octagon since snapping his leg against Dustin Poirier back at UFC 264 in July 2021. That’s five years removed from competition, a stretch that included a scrapped fight with Michael Chandler and no shortage of doubt about whether the comeback would ever actually happen. It has, and it’s a welterweight rematch against Max Holloway, who first beat — er, lost to — McGregor in a very different version of both men’s careers, back at UFC Fight Night in August 2013, when Holloway was a 21-year-old just six fights into his UFC run.

Since then, Holloway has built a Hall of Fame-caliber resume: a 27-9 record, multiple featherweight title reigns, and — most recently — a decision loss to Charles Oliveira for the symbolic BMF belt back in March. He’s still very much in his athletic prime, which is a big reason prediction markets have him priced around 67.5% to win compared to McGregor’s 32.5%, numbers that track almost exactly with sportsbook lines showing Holloway anywhere from -225 to -400 depending on the book. If you’re setting up a watch party and want a side bet with friends, an offer through a DraftKings Promo Code is an easy way to get in on the number before the walkouts.

Whatever your read on the fight, it’s shaping up as one of the year’s biggest watch-party events — book the couch, order the wings, and expect the arena to be loud from the moment McGregor’s music hits.

The Quiet Side Bets: MLB Home Run Watch

Away from the octagon, a couple of niche baseball prop questions have popped up on prediction markets, asking whether Brandon Lowe or CJ Abrams will finish as MLB’s home run king this season. Neither is trading above half a percent, and the leaderboard explains why.

• Kyle Schwarber (Phillies): 32 home runs, the current league leader
• Yordan Alvarez (Astros): 29 home runs
• Brandon Lowe (Pirates): 21 home runs through 87 games
• CJ Abrams (Nationals): 20 home runs through 90 games

Lowe and Abrams are both having strong years, but they’re 11 and 12 home runs back of Schwarber with roughly two and a half months of the regular season left. It’s the kind of gap that makes for a fun bar argument but not much of a real betting market — the numbers already tell the story.

A Division Race Worth Following on the Big Screen

If you’re looking for a storyline with actual drama left in it, the AL Central is the one to put on a second screen this summer. A prediction market on whether the Kansas City Royals win the division sits at just 0.25%, and the standings back that up completely — Kansas City is 38-54, ten games out of first.

But the top of the division is a legitimate three-team scrap: the Chicago White Sox lead at 47-43, with Cleveland just a game back at 47-45 and Minnesota within three games at 45-47. Detroit, at 41-50, has fallen to 6.5 games back after entering the year as many people’s preseason pick to win it all — a fade that’s turned into its own storyline for anyone who had the Tigers penciled in for October.

That kind of tight race makes for great late-summer television, whether you’re watching from the couch or catching highlights between rounds of the UFC card. For fans who like to have a little skin in these longer-term outcomes, checking a MLB odds page for updated division futures is worth the two minutes before the standings shift again.

The Weekend Watch List

Put it all together and this is a genuinely stacked sports weekend: a five-years-in-the-making comeback fight with real drama in the pricing, a home run race that’s basically been decided, and a division fight that’s still wide open. Whether you’re hosting or just tuning in solo, the prediction markets are telling you exactly where to put your attention — and where not to bother.

For anyone building out a full slate of things to watch and wager on this weekend, browsing the latest Top SportsBook Promo Codes before kickoff (or first bell) is an easy way to make sure you’re not leaving free bonus money on the table.