Nuggets vs. Pelicans: What Prediction Markets Say About Denver

Saturday night in New Orleans is shaping up as one of those games where the crowd shows up hoping for a miracle and the betting markets have already moved on. Prediction markets give the Denver Nuggets roughly an 83.5 percent chance to beat the Pelicans, and the sportsbooks are right there with them. Tip-off at Smoothie King Center is 7:00 PM ET.

What the Markets Are Saying About Nuggets vs. Pelicans

On the prediction market side, the Denver moneyline is priced at 0.835, which translates to an implied 83.5 percent win probability, leaving New Orleans at 16.5 percent. About $73,000 has traded on that market over the last 24 hours, so this is not a ghost town. A related market on Denver covering a 9.5-point spread sits at 0.615, which tells you traders think the Nuggets win comfortably more often than not, but not by a lock.

Sportsbooks are a little more aggressive on the margin, with Denver laying 12.5 points at most shops and the total hovering around 234.5. If you are new to reading these numbers, our guide on how betting odds work breaks down how a price turns into an implied percentage like the one above.

Why the Pelicans Are a Tough Watch Right Now

New Orleans arrives at 4-9, sitting 12th in the West, and the recent stretch has been rough. The Pelicans have lost five straight, including a franchise-record 51-point defeat, and they gave up 142 points on Friday, the fourth consecutive game in which they allowed at least 138. For the season they are allowing 125.6 points per game, which ranks 29th in the league.

The schedule does them no favors either. This is the second night of a back-to-back, so the Pelicans have about 24 hours of recovery against a Denver team that has had time to prepare. Dejounte Murray is out with an ankle injury, and Trey Murphy III is dealing with a knee issue and sits in the uncertain column, though he showed up in the projected starting five. Zion Williamson is still the bright spot, averaging about 21.8 points per game.

Denver Has Owned This Matchup Already

The Nuggets are 6-4 and ninth in the West, with a 3-2 mark on the road, and their last five games went loss, win, win, loss, win. They are not a perfect machine, as a recent 118-110 loss to Portland showed. Against New Orleans, though, they have been solid: Denver took the first meeting 141-135 in overtime on October 24, when Jamal Murray scored 42 and Nikola Jokic posted 35 points, 15 rebounds and 10 assists. Denver won again on October 28, 104-91.

The projected Denver starting five is Murray, Christian Braun, Cameron Johnson, Aaron Gordon and Jokic. Murray is averaging about 26.2 points per game while shooting 50.9 percent from the field. The only Nuggets name on the injury report is guard Julian Strawther, who is out with a knee injury and is not expected back until November 29.

The Spread Question: Is 12.5 Too Many?

Here is where it gets interesting for anyone who likes a night out with a little action. The raw win probability is high, but a 12.5-point number asks Denver to win by a lot on the road, and that October 24 game needed overtime. Our NBA betting guide covers why big spreads, back-to-back fatigue and defensive trends should all factor into how you approach a game like this.

The case for Denver covering is straightforward. New Orleans has allowed 138 or more four games in a row, and Denver has Jokic running the offense. One model projects a 123-111 Nuggets win, which lands right on the 12-point mark. That is not much cushion either way, so the moneyline market and the spread market are telling slightly different stories.

Prediction and Best Bet

Denver should handle a tired, shorthanded New Orleans team that cannot stop anyone at the moment. The prediction markets and the sportsbooks agree on the winner, and the only real debate is the margin.

• Prediction: Nuggets 122, Pelicans 109
• Best Bet: Nuggets on the moneyline

If you like to compare lines before you commit, check the latest NBA odds across books, because a half-point on a number this big can matter. Bet only what you can afford to lose, and enjoy the game.