France Is the Betting Markets’ Runaway World Cup Favorite: Your Guide to Thursday’s Spain-Austria and Portugal-Croatia Watch Parties

If you want to know who the world actually thinks is winning this World Cup, skip the group chat debates and look at where the money is moving. France just thumped Sweden 3-0 in the Round of 32, and prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket responded by pushing Les Bleus out to roughly 34-35 percent to win the whole thing — a serious gap over Argentina’s 18 percent and Spain’s 10 percent.

Watch Parties Just Got More Interesting

Thursday brings one of the most stacked days of the entire tournament for anyone hosting a watch party or just settling in with snacks and a good couch. Spain takes on Austria at SoFi Stadium at 3 p.m. ET, and a few hours later Portugal squares off with Croatia at BMO Field in Toronto at 7 p.m. ET. Both winners advance to the same Round of 16 matchup, so Thursday effectively sets the table for one of the bigger storylines of the next round.

Spain has been the quiet story of the group stage, going unbeaten and unscored-upon through wins over Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia and Uruguay. Teenage star Lamine Yamal is back in the fold after a hamstring injury, and prediction models have Spain around a 70 percent favorite to handle Austria, even with an Austrian side that’s been fun to watch on the counter.

Ronaldo and Modric, One Last Dance

The night game is the emotional one. Cristiano Ronaldo, 41, already made history this tournament by becoming the first player to score at six different World Cups, and this is widely considered his final World Cup appearance. Across the pitch, Croatia captain Luka Modric, 40, just picked up his 200th international cap and is also almost certainly playing his last World Cup. Two legends, one match, and a genuine chance either one walks off the field for good afterward. That’s appointment viewing whether or not you’ve got a bet down.

Portugal enters as the mild favorite with roughly a 54-55 percent win probability by advanced models, but Croatia has made a habit of grinding out knockout football — they’ve already knocked out England and beaten Ghana to get here. If this one goes to extra time, don’t be shocked.

Why Everyone’s Suddenly Talking About Prediction Markets

Part of what’s made this World Cup different is how mainstream prediction markets have become for casual fans, not just people trading crypto or reading finance newsletters. Kalshi says it did nearly $10 billion in betting volume in just the first two weeks of the tournament, hitting daily volume above $1.6 billion at its peak. Polymarket’s soccer trading jumped roughly 300 percent compared to the ten days before kickoff.

Practically speaking, that means the odds you see on a prediction market app are moving in something close to real time based on actual money, not just a sportsbook’s internal model. If you’re the type who checks live sports odds before flipping on the game, prediction markets are worth having open in a second tab right alongside your usual apps. It also helps to understand how betting odds work if you’re jumping between formats on different platforms.

Setting Up Your Thursday Watch Schedule

For anyone planning their day around these two matches, the early game gives you a clean afternoon watch with Spain-Austria at 3 p.m. ET, and the Portugal-Croatia game at 7 p.m. ET works well as a dinner-and-a-match combo. Both games have real stakes attached, both feed the same bracket slot, and both come with genuine storylines beyond just who wins. If you’re tracking action across the day, our live betting guide and a quick look at DraftKings vs. FanDuel are worth a read before kickoff.

Prediction and Best Bet

Spain looks like the safer lean given its defensive numbers and the return of Yamal, while Portugal-Croatia has the makings of a classic that could go either way.

• Prediction: Spain over Austria; Portugal over Croatia in a tighter contest
• Best Bet: Spain moneyline

Spain’s unbeaten, unscored-upon group stage gives it the clearest edge on the board, making it the more comfortable watch-party pick of the night.