3 NHL Props to Back on October 10: Bouchard Shots, Kaprizov Goal, Rossi Points

Saturday’s NHL slate is loaded, and three props stand out above the rest of the board. We’re not boxing ourselves into one category today — a shots on goal play, an anytime goal scorer, and a points prop all made the cut because they’re simply the strongest bets available, regardless of type. Edmonton’s top-pairing defenseman, Minnesota’s superstar winger, and a budding center all have real paths to cash tonight.

Two of these three come from the same matchup at Amerant Bank Arena, where the Wild head to Florida for a non-conference tilt against the Panthers, while the third comes out west as the Oilers visit San Jose. Here’s why each one belongs in your card.

Evan Bouchard Shots on Goal — Volume Machine Against the Sharks

Evan Bouchard has been a shot-generating force out of the back end for Edmonton, and that trend shows no signs of slowing against San Jose. Through four games this season, the Oilers’ No. 2 defenseman has already fired 16 shots on net, averaging exactly four per contest — elite volume for any player, let alone one logging over 25 minutes a night from the blue line.

Bouchard has turned that volume into production too, with six goals and five assists for 11 points already, making him the first defenseman in the league to crack double-digit points this year. He’s riding a stretch that includes a hat trick and multiple multi-point efforts, and he hasn’t faced San Jose yet this season to give oddsmakers a data point to lean on. The Sharks have been giving up traffic defensively, and a player shooting this frequently from both the point and off the rush is a strong lean to clear his shots on goal line tonight.

Kirill Kaprizov Anytime Goal Scorer — Model Loves the Edge

Kirill Kaprizov is lighting the lamp early this season, and the numbers back a bet on him finding the net again against Florida. Dimers’ model projects Kaprizov at a 43.7% probability to score an anytime goal in this matchup, translating to roughly a 6% edge over the market price — one of the better plus-EV plays on the entire slate.

Kaprizov already has three goals on nine shots this season, a healthy 33.3% conversion rate, and he’s found the net in two of his four games played. He’s also seeing time on the power play, which only adds more paths to a goal against a Panthers team that’s allowed its share of chances early this year. Minnesota will need its best players to step up on the road against a quality Florida squad, and Kaprizov is exactly the kind of player who shows up in spots like this.

Marco Rossi Points Over 0.5 — Quietly Great Value

While Kaprizov draws most of the attention in Minnesota’s lineup, Marco Rossi is putting together a strong value play of his own in the same game. Dimers has Rossi’s Over 0.5 points prop at a 52.5% model probability with a 4.2% edge, available at plus-money odds of +107 — a near coin-flip proposition priced generously in the bettor’s favor.

Rossi has established himself as a reliable point producer in Minnesota’s middle six, and recording a single point — just one goal or assist — is a low bar for a player getting consistent minutes against a Panthers team allowing traffic defensively early in the year. Getting plus-money on a prop with model-backed value north of 50% is the kind of spot sharp bettors look for, and it rounds out tonight’s board as the value play of the group. If you’re exploring different ways to build out these same-night combos, our same game parlays guide breaks down how to structure multi-leg bets like this one.

Lock These In

Three different bet types, three different paths to a winning Saturday. Check your sportsbook for final lines before kickoff, since odds can shift as game time approaches.

• Evan Bouchard OVER shots on goal (vs. Sharks)
• Kirill Kaprizov Anytime Goal Scorer (43.7% model probability, ~6% edge)
• Marco Rossi OVER 0.5 Points (+107, 52.5% model probability)

Three names, three different categories, one strong Saturday slate to attack.