3 NHL Best-of-the-Board Props to Back on October 24: McDavid, Dunn and Geekie

Saturday night’s NHL board has a little bit of everything: a heavyweight in Edmonton, a late-night Pacific Time special in Seattle, and a Boston team that has quietly been rolling at TD Garden. We are mixing it up today with a points prop, a shots on goal prop and a goal scorer, so there is a ticket here for the chalk lovers and the plus-money crowd alike.

These three picks come from the numbers, not vibes: recent production, matchup splits, current lines and projection models. Check your own book before you bet, because prices move all day, and bet only what you can afford to lose.

Connor McDavid Over 0.5 Points vs. Toronto

You are not going to get rich on this one, but you are not supposed to. Connor McDavid leads the NHL with 31 points through 10 games (8 goals, 23 assists), and he has picked up at least one assist in every single game this season. He has also cleared 0.5 points in all 10 of his starts, including five-point nights on Oct. 1, Oct. 17 and Oct. 22.

The price reflects that: Covers shows over 0.5 points around -800 at FanDuel and Fanatics, and as steep as -1250 at Caesars, so shop around and make sure the number is still fair when you place it. Edmonton (8-1-1) is a -175 to -185 home favorite against a Toronto team that is 6-4-2, and the Oilers are scoring 4.60 goals per game. When your team is scoring that often, the guy driving the offense is involved in most of it.

The best way to use McDavid at this price is as a banker in a parlay or a same-game ticket. It is the safest leg on the board, and it is more fun than hoping for a miracle.

Vince Dunn Over 1.5 Shots on Goal vs. Minnesota

Now for the spicy one. Vince Dunn is a minutes monster for Seattle, averaging 23:42 a night with big power play time, and he has taken 18 shots on goal through 11 games (about 1.64 per game). His last five games went 1, 1, 3, 1, 4 in shots on goal (oldest to newest, ending Oct. 22 with 1), so he has cleared 1.5 in just two of those five, which is worth being honest about. The line we are looking at is -190 at DraftKings, and our model has this at 69.5%, which is a better number than his season average suggests, so size this one accordingly.

The case for it comes from the matchup and the setting. Minnesota is allowing 31.55 shots against per game, and the Wild are on the road at the tail end of a five-game trip after losing 4-3 in a shootout in Edmonton on Tuesday and 2-1 in Calgary on Thursday. Seattle is hosting a 10 p.m. ET game at Climate Pledge Arena, Dunn works the top power play unit, and Jesper Wallstedt faced 22 shots against Calgary on Thursday. If the Kraken get a couple of power plays, Dunn should get volume.

It is the riskiest of the three at this price, so treat it as a smaller play. The -190 tag is not free money, but the role is there.

Morgan Geekie Anytime Goal Scorer vs. San Jose

Here is the plus-money swing. Morgan Geekie scored 39 goals last season, and he has only one so far this year, even though he has seven assists to go with it. That is the classic setup for a scorer who is due: the process looks fine, with seven shots on net and a role on Boston’s second line next to Fraser Minten, but the puck has not gone in. At +230 at DraftKings, the model gives Geekie a 36.0% chance, a 5.7% edge over the implied price.

The matchup helps. Boston (8-2-1) is a -182 favorite at home and scores 3.82 goals per game, and San Jose is allowing 3.27 per game with Yaroslav Askarov (3-4-0, 3.43 GAA, .883 save percentage) expected in goal. The Bruins already beat these Sharks 6-3 on Oct. 13, and Geekie had two assists in that game. Boston’s power play is clicking at 22.6%, so any San Jose trip to the box is a chance for Geekie to get a look.

The Bruins’ projected starter at the other end is Michael Dipietro per PuckPedia, with Jeremy Swayman as the backup, so check the lineup before puck drop. If you want a feel for how this type of bet works, our how betting odds work guide breaks down what plus-money prices mean.

Lock These In: Today’s Best of the Board

One bet to bank, one volume play and one swing at plus money. If you want a good place to line shop these props, the player prop search tool is handy, and a lot of sportsbooks run odds boosts on a Saturday slate like this one.

• Connor McDavid OVER 0.5 points (around -800 at several books, check your book)
• Vince Dunn OVER 1.5 shots on goal (-190 at DraftKings)
• Morgan Geekie anytime goal scorer (+230 at DraftKings)

Enjoy the hockey, keep the stakes sensible, and may the puck bounce your way tonight.