3 NHL Best-of-the-Board Props to Back on November 5

Thursday night’s NHL slate is a good one for anyone who likes their prop bets with a side of fun. Three games, three very different kinds of player, and one shared theme: each of these guys is playing the kind of hockey that makes a sportsbook line look a little lazy. We are mixing it up today with a shots prop, a points prop and a defenseman who just keeps finding the scoresheet.

Every pick below is built on recent form, matchup context and the numbers behind the line, not on vibes alone. All three games drop the puck at 7:00 PM ET, so you have plenty of time to shop around. Prop numbers move all day, so confirm the current price at your book before you lock anything in.

Trevor Connelly Over 1.5 Shots on Goal at Detroit

Trevor Connelly (#24, left wing) has quietly turned into one of the more dependable shot volume plays on the Vegas roster. Through 17 games he has 11 points (six goals, five assists) and 31 shots on goal, and he fired four shots at Pittsburgh on November 3 while scoring in the Golden Knights’ 3-2 win. He is skating mostly with Tomas Hertl at even strength and getting power-play time too, which keeps his shot opportunities steady.

The market agrees he is a live over. The over 1.5 shots line sits around -150 at DraftKings (under 1.5 is roughly +110), and Dimers rates the over at a 77.9 percent probability with a 17.9 percent edge, one of the biggest gaps on the board. Vegas heads into Little Caesars Arena at 10-5-2 against a Detroit team sitting at 7-6-3, and a Golden Knights club that controls shot attempts with Connelly on the ice should keep feeding him chances.

A heavy price on a 1.5 line is the cost of doing business, but the shooting trend and the matchup justify it. If you want to understand why that price reads the way it does, our guide on how betting odds work breaks down what a number like -150 actually implies.

Jack Hughes Over 0.5 Points Against St. Louis

Jack Hughes (#86, center) is the headliner at the Prudential Center. He has 19 points (eight goals, 11 assists) in 15 games, which works out to better than a point per game, and he is coming off a two-goal, one-assist performance with five shots on goal in Tuesday’s 4-3 shootout win over Edmonton. He has averaged more than 20 minutes a night and owns 59 shots on goal this season, so the volume is real.

New Jersey is a heavy favorite at around -175 to -190 on the moneyline against a St. Louis club that is 7-7-1 and 3-5 on the road. When the Devils are favored by that much, the offense runs through Hughes, and he gets heavy power-play time. A one-point floor is a modest ask for a player averaging 1.27 points per game.

The player prop shopping is where you can find an edge here. Lines and prices for Hughes vary from book to book, so use a player prop search to compare numbers and grab the best one before puck drop.

Mikhail Sergachev Over 0.5 Points at Montreal

Mikhail Sergachev (#98, defenseman) now plays for Utah, and he has been one of the most productive blueliners in the league. He carries an eight-game point streak into Montreal and has 19 points (five goals, 14 assists) through 16 games. He also posted two power-play assists in Tuesday’s 3-2 win over Toronto while logging nearly 26 minutes, and over the last 10 games he has four goals and eight assists.

The underlying numbers back up the production. He sits at roughly 55 percent Corsi-for and has scored five goals on about 2.2 expected, so some of the finishing may cool, but the assist-driven side of his game is sticky because he works on the top power-play unit. Dimers flagged him among Thursday’s best props, and the matchup is a high-event one: Utah is a slight road favorite around -122 with a total of 6.5.

A defenseman point prop is a nice change of pace from the usual shots and goals menu. Check your book for the current price, since defenseman point numbers can swing a lot.

Lock These In

Thursday’s board rewards patience and good shopping. Connelly offers a shot-volume play backed by a big model edge, Hughes is the most reliable producer on a heavy favorite, and Sergachev brings a streak and a power-play role to a fast-paced game. Here are the three plays:

• Trevor Connelly OVER 1.5 shots on goal (about -150 at DraftKings)
• Jack Hughes OVER 0.5 points (check your book for the current price)
• Mikhail Sergachev OVER 0.5 points (check your book for the current price)

Shop around, bet within your means, and enjoy the puck drop. If you want to turn these into a combined ticket, our same game parlays guide explains how those wagers work.