3 NHL Best-of-Board Props to Back on October 21: Sanderson, Batherson, Benson

Only two games on the NHL board tonight, which means there is nowhere to hide and nothing to scroll past. Flyers at Sabres and Panthers at Senators both drop the puck at 7:30 PM ET, and between them we found three props that look like the kind of bets you can cash and still enjoy your dinner.

The menu is a little bit of everything: a defenseman who might not shoot much on his first night back, a sniper facing a backup goalie on short notice, and a playmaker who has been collecting helpers like they are free samples. Odds and probabilities below come from the current board and Dimers model numbers, so shop around before you click.

Jake Sanderson Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (-180)

Ottawa’s top-pair defenseman is slated to return tonight after missing eight straight games with a lower-body injury, one he picked up in the opener against Toronto on October 3. He played just 4:29 that night before leaving. Coming back from that kind of layoff, the smart bet is not that he suddenly turns into a shooting gallery.

Even at full health, 2.5 is a tall order for him. Sanderson averaged 2.2 shots per game last season and went over 2.5 in only 24 of 67 games, roughly 36 percent of the time. His career mark sits at 2.09 shots per game, and he has shot 2.20 times per game over his last 10 games. A blueliner who lives around two shots a night, possibly with his minutes eased back in, is a fine candidate for the under.

The price tells the story. At -180 you are paying a premium, but Dimers puts the probability at 71.3 percent, a 7.0 percent edge over the implied number. That is the safest play on the card, and every card needs one boring friend. If you want to compare how different books price this kind of prop, our player prop search makes it easy.

Drake Batherson Anytime Goal Scorer (+230)

Batherson has quietly been one of Ottawa’s best finishers this season, with four goals and two assists through nine games and 21 shots on goal. He scored the lone Senators goal in Saturday’s 3-1 loss to Philadelphia, and one of his four goals has come on the power play.

The matchup is the real reason to like him. Jacob Markstrom is out one to two weeks with an upper-body injury, so Akira Schmid is expected to start in net for Florida. Schmid enters with a 3.25 goals-against average and a .878 save percentage, numbers that give shooters a reason to get their stick on everything. Ottawa is also a small home favorite, listed around -108, with the Canadian Tire Centre crowd behind it.

At +230, a bet needs to hit about 30 percent of the time to break even. Dimers has Batherson at 34.0 percent, a 3.7 percent edge. He is a top-line shooter with power-play time, and the goalie on the other end is a downgrade. That is the profile of a plus-money scorer worth a small swing.

Zach Benson To Record an Assist (+170)

Benson has not scored a goal yet this season, and honestly, nobody in Buffalo cares. He has six assists in nine games, tied for the team lead and first among Sabres forwards, and he enters tonight on a four-game point streak. He is averaging 19 minutes and 52 seconds a night, and his line with Noah Ostlund and Jack Quinn has combined for four goals and 15 points in the four games since coach Lindy Ruff put it together. Benson has five assists in that stretch alone.

The opponent helps. Philadelphia is 2-6-3 and without Travis Konecny, who is on injured reserve, and Joseph Woll is projected to start in goal. Buffalo is a heavy home favorite at roughly -185, which means more offensive-zone time and more chances for Benson to be the last pass before the red light.

At +170 the break-even point is about 37 percent, and Dimers prices Benson at 40.9 percent, a 3.9 percent edge. His underlying numbers back it up, since he leads Buffalo in five-on-five expected goals share. The assists are coming because the play is going through him. If a number like +170 still feels like a foreign language, our guide on how betting odds work shows how to turn it into an implied probability.

Lock These In

A short slate means you can bet with real conviction and still be done before the second intermission. Here is the card, with the prices we found at the time of writing, so check your book before you place anything:

• Jake Sanderson UNDER 2.5 shots on goal (-180)
• Drake Batherson anytime goal scorer (+230)
• Zach Benson to record an assist (+170)

One safe play, one lottery ticket with an edge, and one playmaker on a heater. Bet responsibly, only wager what you can afford to lose, and enjoy the hockey.