Tonight’s Thursday Night Football game between the Seattle Seahawks and Chicago Bears sees two teams going in opposite directions. The Seahawks are still pushing to win their division and make a playoff run. While the Bears have been officially eliminated from the playoffs.
I do think we will see points in this game tonight. Caleb Williams has shown he can move the ball and run an efficient offense playing at home. While the Seahawks are going to need to put up points to win this game, I strongly lean toward the 1H Over and the Over 41.5.
Moore has amassed 56 targets over his last 6 games, hauling in 43 receptions. To say his connection with Caleb Williams in this offense has not grown, and flourished, would be an understatement. Now they face a Seahawks defense allowing the 12th most receptions to WR and I believe he sees another 8-10 targets.
Over those last 6 games, the Bears have involved Moore in both the running game, and the short passing game, which I believe they will utilize again here. The Seahawks should be playing with the lead for most of this game, which will put the play calling in favor of Williams finding Moore to move the chains.
Moore still owns more than 25% target share in this offense, and Williams averages 30 passing attempts through 8 home games, 31 overall this season. At 25% that puts Moore right around 8 targets. We just saw Justin Jefferson catch 10 passes last week, and I wouldn’t put it past Moore to run up the ladder tonight as well.
With the Seahawks playing for their division, and the playoffs, they are going to be full steam ahead and I expect their offense to make plays tonight. And while the Bears should be in tank mode, I still expect their offense to come out and produce tonight.
Caleb Williams has 65% completion percentage in 6 of his 8 home starts, which is what Seattle's defense allows. I do think Chicago will find success moving the ball, which will force Seattle's hand to keep scoring. In 6 road games, Seattle has scored 23 points in 5 of the 6, and have scored 23 in 3 of their last 4 games overall.
Chicago has allowed their last 2 opponents at home, and their last 5 straight opponents to score at least 23 points. If you wanted less juice I still like the over 23.5 for -104, I just believe 23 could be a very key number tonight and I want to be on the right side there. I like the over 41.5 (-110) in this game and I believe we can see a 23-20 or 23-17 victory for the Seahawks tonight!
My Best Bets (2):
DJ Moore (CHI) o5.5 Receptions (-102) Fanduel
Seahawks Team Total o22.5 (-135) DraftKings
Bonus Bet:
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) o22.5 Longest Rec (-110)
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Top Flight Wagers has several years of experience in the sports betting industry and currently operates their own handicapping business. They're successful in all sports but specializes in UFC and Golf for EatWatchBet. Find them on X @TopFlightWagers