Saints at Rams: 2 Player Prop Bets for TNF

The meeting between the Saints and Rams on Thursday night will be the third since they played for the NFC title in early 2019, a night the people of New Orleans may never forget. The Rams emerged victorious in overtime after tying the game with 15 seconds to go in regulation and scoring first in the extra period after intercepting a Drew Brees pass.

Before either of those kicks occurred, the Rams had the benefit of one of the most notorious no-calls in recent memory, as cornerback Nickell Robey-Coleman demolished Saints' receiver Tommylee Lewis before the arrival of an intended pass and the referees' whistles remained silent. While the 'ball don't lie' crowd might cite the Rams' subsequent Super Bowl defeat as some quick karma, plenty of bad blood will still fuel this matchup.

Adding to the vitriol of this contest is the fact that both teams are competing for the final two playoff spots in the NFC. The Rams currently hold the seventh seed thanks to a tiebreaker over the Seahawks and Saints, but this is an opportunity for New Orleans to claw back some pride. The Rams are favored by 4.5 in their building with a total of 44.5 points.

During last week's unexpected thrashing delivered by the Raiders to the division-rival Chargers, our prop card cashed on Aidan O'Connell's passing yard total during a career night for the rookie from Purdue and suffered a loss in the form of Derwin James's tackling total.

After back-to-back split records, we aim to load up in the win column for this meeting of NFC playoff hopefuls. Our reasoning for this week's TNF best bets is detailed just ahead.

Alvin Kamara UNDER 49.5 Rushing Yards

• LA's rush defense is statistically average over the course of the season but has continued to improve. The Rams have allowed 89.2 yards per game since their bye week and have held opponents to fewer than 90 yards in four of five.
• We acknowledge that Kamara's been a more efficient runner over the last five games, averaging 4.3 yards per carry on 66 attempts. Before then, Kamara had posted 95 carries for 346 yards (3.6 ypc).
• Saints' starting tackle Ryan Ramczyk missed last week's game against Carolina and did not practice Monday before this TNF matchup's short turnaround.
• Jamaal Williams, an offseason signing by the Saints, has accumulated over a third of his carries this season in the last three weeks as he claws his way back into the rotation.

Kyren Williams OVER 88.5 Rushing Yards

• New Orleans ranks 27th in opponent rushing average and 24th in overall rush defense.
• On the other hand, the Saints are stout against the pass, ranking 5th in net yards per attempt given up to opponents and sixth in passing defense.
• The Saints' defense has stood tall on third downs, allowing teams to convert just 34.9% of their attempts this season (4th in the NFL). Williams himself has moved the chains 59 times in 2023, including 36 times in the last five games alone.
• Williams is shouldering an unparalleled number of carries in his last five games, leading all NFL running backs with 109 carries in his previous five starts. Only Josh Jacobs has also surpassed 100 rush attempts in that same sample.