The NFL is BACK, and I know readers have been anticipating this time of the year. The dog days of baseball have gotten the better of us all and now it is time to turn our attention to football!
What an opener we have on deck tomorrow night! Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Baltimore Ravens, a smash mouth, action-packed game right out of the gates, what more could we ask for?
Baltimore Can Cover This & Win
Both of these teams return as top 3 contenders for the Super Bowl and even though week 1 may not mean as much as games later in the season, Ravens would like to get the Chiefs back for that conference championship loss. Ravens come in this season boasting a projected #1 ranked defense and top 10 offense.
I really don’t mind the +3 look on the Ravens as it currently sits, and I do think they have a great chance to win. Early on in the season, I trust the Ravens to be the more physical team out of the gate, especially on offense, with more focus in game 1 to keep this thing close.
The Ravens project to have the 6th best secondary, and with their stud linebacking corps returning, they could lead the league again in turnovers produced.
I expect this game to be on the ground a lot, which will slow the pace and keep the game close. Chiefs also like to get physical with Pacheco, and I expect a nice dose of Pacheco and Mahomes running the ball. Mahomes knows the Ravens are dangerous to pass against so they will pick their spots.
One of the biggest weaknesses of Baltimore this season is a projected bottom 5 offensive line, which will matter! A top 5 offensive line last season had to replace 3, basically 4 starters and don’t have much depth.
I expect Lamar and Henry to control the ground game and find their spots to pass with that vulnerable o-line. I think they will find enough explosive plays to keep this game within reach.
Defenses Will Stand Out
Baltimore is projected to have the #1 defense in the league by every source and Chiefs are top 10 depending on where you look. Funny thing is, both teams were top 6 in total yards allowed, Baltimore was #1 in points per game and total sacks, while Kansas City was #2 in both of those categories!
These are two of the toughest defenses in the league to score on, and even though circumstances are much different, we had a 17-10 conference championship game, with both teams hovering around 300 total yards.
The Ravens had 3 turnovers, and the Chiefs dominated time of possession. Both defenses were difficult to move the ball and score on last year and I don’t see that changing this time around. I expect both offenses to feel the defenses out the first few drives leading to a lower scoring first half helping this total stay under where we have taken it.
My Best Bet:
2-Leg Parlay (-120) DraftKings
Ravens +7.5 + Total Under 53.5
