Patriots vs Bears TNF Preview: Odds, Prediction, Best Bet

Thursday Night Football gets a quarterback showdown that has been years in the making. The New England Patriots (4-2) travel to Soldier Field to face the Chicago Bears (4-2), and the two men under center, Drake Maye and Caleb Williams, were the No. 3 and No. 1 picks of the 2024 draft. Kickoff is 8:15 PM ET on Prime Video, and with both teams riding good momentum, this is the kind of game that is easy to love even if you have no money on it.

The Line: Bears Are Small Home Favorites

Chicago is a 3-point favorite at DraftKings and FanDuel (Bears -3 at -105, Patriots +3 at -115 at FanDuel), with a few books hanging Bears -3.5. On the moneyline, the Bears sit around -148 and the Patriots around +124, with FanDuel at Chicago -154 and New England +130. If you are new to reading those numbers, our guide on how betting odds work breaks it down in plain English.

The total is the number that has really moved. It opened at 47.5 and has climbed to 50.5, a sign that the market expects points from two offenses playing well. ESPN’s FPI also leans Chicago, giving the Bears a 60 percent chance to win and a margin of 2.4 points, which lines up almost exactly with the posted spread.

Short weeks add a wrinkle. Neither team gets a normal week of recovery or installation, and that tends to favor the healthier, more settled roster. Right now, that argument leans toward Chicago.

Two Hot Teams, Two Very Different Paths

New England has won three straight. The Patriots beat the Jets 26-19 on October 18, blew out the Raiders 45-17 on October 11, and pulled off a 29-26 upset at Buffalo on October 4 against the AFC East leader. Earlier losses came at Jacksonville (35-6) and in the opener at Seattle (13-10), with a 20-3 win over Pittsburgh in between. Maye is the engine. Over the last three weeks he has thrown an NFL-best 10 touchdown passes with a 119.3 passer rating, tops among qualified quarterbacks, and a 0.38 EPA per dropback. He has just one interception in that span after throwing a league-high six in the first three weeks of the season.

Chicago’s recent run is more of a roller coaster. The Bears beat the Jets 23-12 on October 4, got run out of Green Bay 31-7 on October 11, then bounced back with a 31-23 win at Atlanta on October 18 with Williams back from injury. Williams is off the injury report this week, which is a big deal. Defensively, the Bears lead the NFL with 42 takeaways since the start of last season, and that ball-hawking style is the best counter to a quarterback who is playing as cleanly as Maye is right now. A win would make Chicago 5-2 for the first time since 2020.

The injury report is where New England has more to worry about. Right tackle Morgan Moses (ankle) and receiver A.J. Brown (ankle) were limited, and receiver Romeo Doubs is dealing with a shoulder issue. Guard Alijah Vera-Tucker (hamstring), lineman Ben Brown (knee), and cornerback Carlton Davis III (neck) did not practice. Kicker Andy Borregales and defensive tackle Joshua Farmer are away for personal reasons. Coach Mike Vrabel has sounded pessimistic about getting players back on a short week. Chicago is not spotless either: guard Jonah Jackson (hip/quad) and linebacker T.J. Edwards (hamstring) did not practice, running back Kyle Monangai and linebacker Jack Sanborn are in the concussion protocol, and the Bears still have a decision to make at left tackle.

Old Rivalry, Thin Recent History

New England leads the all-time series 11-5, a count that includes the Patriots’ win over Chicago in Super Bowl XX. The most recent meeting was Week 10 of 2024, a 19-3 Patriots win. The last Bears victory came in Week 7 of 2022, a 33-14 Monday Night Football win at Gillette Stadium, and New England won the last game played in Chicago, 38-31 in 2018. The Patriots are also 15-8 all-time on Thursdays, and they have a second Thursday game on the schedule on December 10 against Minnesota.

History matters less here than the quarterbacks. Maye and Williams have met once before, and Maye came out on top, but both are playing at a much higher level now than they were then.

Prediction and Best Bet

Chicago has the home field, a healthier quarterback situation, and a defense built to take the ball away. New England has the hotter passer, but a banged-up offensive line and a thin secondary on a short week is a tough place to be at Soldier Field. Expect a high-scoring game that Chicago wins late. Before you bet, a look at our NFL betting guide is a good refresher on shopping for the best number.

• Prediction: Bears 27, Patriots 24
• Best Bet: Over 50.5 total points

With the total up three full points from the opener, the market is already telling you this one should score. Both quarterbacks are playing well, both defenses are dealing with injuries, and a 27-24 type finish clears the number, so the over is the play. If you would rather back a side, Bears -3 is the lean, and it is worth shopping for -2.5 if you can find it.