Patriots at Broncos: Our 2 Best Player Props for SNF

The last time the Broncos and Patriots did battle, Drew Lock and Cam Newton both tossed a pair of picks in a game that saw eight field goals and a one-yard rushing touchdown as the only scoring plays. The 2023 version of this matchup may not look too different.

Denver won by six in a game where 30 points were scored in 2020. Ahead of this Sunday Night Football contest, the Broncos are 7-point favorites with a project total of 34.5 points. Time is a flat circle and all that.

Both teams began their seasons with 2-5 records but have little in common since. The Pats have carried on losing, dropping six of seven games, and now are a game “behind” the Chicago Bears via the Carolina Panthers for the top selection in the upcoming NFL Draft.

In the same period, the Broncos have won five of seven and were a game out of the AFC West lead last week before getting smoked by the Lions. On the heels of that loss, Denver has dropped to the 11th seed in the AFC and is now in must-win territory for the remainder of their season.

We’ve been allergic to a blemish-free record over the last several weeks and again saw our props finish 1-1 in Week 15’s Sunday Night Football matchup. Before injuring his knee and being ruled out for the season this week, Keaton Mitchell posted his third straight game with nine carries and a rushing average of 6.0 yards or better while compiling 73 yards and sinking our under.

Fellow rookie Parker Washington didn’t do much with his four catches, but that was enough to cash the play on his receptions going over. We’ve now got a 17-10 record over the last 11 editions of SNF. Ahead of Pats-Broncos, we’ve got another batch of best bets in the player prop department that we dig into just ahead.

Javonte Williams UNDER 55.5 Rushing Yards (-110 @ Bet365)

• Williams’ production this season ranks among the least efficient performances in pro football since 2010. Of the 308 instances where a player has carried the ball 180 times or more in a season, Williams is 270th in yards per carry with a 3.7 mark.
• Since the team’s bye in early November, Williams has compiled 92 carries, 320 yards, and a single touchdown. That’s a 3.47-yard average per attempt, and he hasn’t cracked 4.0 yards per carry in any one game during that span.
• New England doesn’t do many things well this season, but they can stake their claim to being able to stop the run. They are best in the league in opponent rush average at 3.1 yards per carry and rank second in total rush defense.

Bailey Zappe OVER 181.5 Passing Yards (-114 @ BetRivers)

• Denver's improving defense still has difficulty preventing passing success, ranking 28th in yards allowed and 26th in yards per attempt. After holding opponents fewer than 250 passing yards for five straight weeks, they've given up 260+ yards twice in three games.
• The Broncos don't have the luxury of a stout front seven, which their secondary could rely on to drop more players into coverage. They are dead last in both rushing defense overall and yards per carry given up to opponents. This combination has led to their defense allowing the most yards per drive in the league.
• Over the last two weeks, Zappe has rebounded from New England's shutout loss to the Chargers. The second-year man from Western Kentucky has completed 71% of his throws and should be able to eclipse 200 yards in this game if he approaches 30 attempts.