It’s the best time of the year in the NFL as we are finally into the playoffs! It’s “Super” Wild Card weekend in the NFL, although the league has randomly decided to drop the “super” moniker just before the games. I have a couple of best bets for this weekend, so take a look below!
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills
I don’t think there’s a single-digit number that I wouldn’t lay with Buffalo this weekend. I bet this at -7.5 and -8.5 already this week and would still be comfortable through 9. (There are plenty of -8.5 -110s in the market currently.) Despite overperforming expectations in 2024, the Denver Broncos will be extremely outclassed when they arrive in Buffalo this weekend.
Bo Nix has been a pleasant surprise for Denver this season and while he may not be a true franchise QB, his play has been good enough to get to this point. That being said, a team with a rookie QB on the road in Buffalo is not a team I’d like to back in the playoffs.
Throughout 2024, the Broncos have gotten away with several lucky victories and have taken advantage of some good fortune to get to this point. The defense has been good in 2024, led by star CB Patrick Surtain, who’s a candidate for Defensive Player of the Year this year, they’ve also put together a surprisingly good pass rush despite lacking in big-name or top-draft pick talent.
I do think that a lot of the Broncos' numbers are skewed by a relatively easy schedule, especially during the beginning portion of their season. Down the stretch, they’ve allowed 30+ points to the Browns, Chargers, and Bengals. They were outclassed in most of their games against tough competition, except the Chiefs who they narrowly lost to. (I’m not counting their 38-0 against the Chiefs scout team as a significant outcome.)
Best Bet: Bills -8.5 (-110)
Josh Allen and company shouldn’t have much of an issue moving the ball against the Broncos' defense. OC Joe Brady has also done an excellent job with drive design since taking the OC job in Buffalo. I’d expect Buffalo to maintain their lead with long, sustained drives featuring their running backs and killing the clock.
The Buffalo defense is finally healthy with Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano back over the middle. This defense has underperformed at times in 2024 but hasn’t been healthy as a unit since the beginning of the season.
While I do think the Broncos can find some success offensively, they don’t have enough firepower to keep up with Josh Allen and the Bills. This feels eerily similar to Mac Jones’ first playoff start for the Patriots where the Bills won 47-17. I’ll lay the -8.5 in the market, comfortably.
Minnesota Vikings @ LA Rams
Have the Vikings finally come back to Earth? Or are we seeing a necessary correction in market to the Vikings actual level? I think the answer to that question is somewhere in between. Let’s start with Sam Darnold. Darnold has been the talk of the town with his career rejuvenation under Kevin O’Connell in Minnesota and while he does deserve praise for his overall improvements, he’s benefited greatly from a well schemed offense, superstar receivers, and a top five offensive line.
Sam Darnold’s biggest probably is that he holds the ball way too long. This was utterly apparent on SNF against the Lions when the Vikings were unable to punch in a touchdown from less than 10 yards out three straight times. Despite the offensive line holding up most of those series, Darnold looked hesitant and was otherwise inaccurate when he did release the ball. It’s not safe to assume that he got those jitters out of him as he goes on the road to start his first ever playoff game.
For the first time this season, I also wasn’t a fan of the play call by KOC and was especially surprised at his decision to kick a field goal while down 17-9, which ultimately led to another Lions touchdown. To be fair, if the Vikings are able to score on one or two of those red zone drives or if Van Ginkel is able to hold onto the ball on an almost pick six, we’d be looking at a very different outcome. Perhaps one that sees the Lions in this game instead of Minnesota. However, I see that more as an indictment of the Lions instead of reason to back Minnesota.
Best Bet: Rams Team Total Over 23.5 (-110)
Looking at the Rams, this offense has been terrible in the final part of the season. The play call hasn’t been great, they’ve been running the ball into the dirt, and Stafford has seemed out of sync with his receivers. That being said, Sean McVay has had two weeks to implement a new strategy offensively and he essentially tanked a Week 18 game that wasn’t entirely meaningless, in order to ensure his starters were healthy for this game.
Defensively, the Rams are excellent at generating pressure. Again, this is where Darnold is at his weakest. If the Rams can force Darnold to take sacks and make mistakes under pressure, this gives the secondary a chance to contain Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Where this line opened up at +2.5, there was probably value on the Rams, but I am not betting it at PK. There are still some +1.5’s in market, which should make an excellent teaser pair with the Bills.
The angle I’ll be taking here is the Rams team total over. Matthew Stafford is great under pressure, which is the hallmark of Brian Flores’ defense. I don’t think the Minnesota secondary will be as good as advertised against all the motion and quick throws of the Rams' offense. The Vikings were also surprisingly weak against the Detroit run game and allowed Jahmyr Gibbs to get whatever he wanted on the ground. I expect McVay to have a good plan to balance the run and pass and take advantage of what was exposed about the Vikings defense in their Week 18 loss.
