Just two weeks left in the 2024 NFL season, as we are into Week 17. Six teams have already been in action this week and we’ll get three Saturday games before what looks to be a pretty brutal Sunday slate.
The late weeks of the season can be difficult to navigate with varying effort levels and motivations from team to team. We’ll try to identify some spots where the books are over/under-valuing teams and extract some value from the Week 17 slate
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
This is looking like an ugly game up in Buffalo on Sunday, as the Jets head north to face Josh Allen and the Bills. There will be heavy rain in Buffalo with temperatures in the 40s, so we’re unlikely to see any snow. The line in this game is sitting at about -9 across the market, but multiple -9.5s are available.
I think we will continue to see similar performances from Buffalo for the rest of the season as we did in their game against New England. Josh Allen and Sean McDermott have made it pretty clear that they are not going to be bringing out their entire playbook for these games. Buffalo is locked into the two seed with Kansas City’s Christmas Day win sealing the one seed.
Buffalo’s defense hasn’t been great this year and I’m sure the team is much more focused on staying healthy for the playoff run than pushing their starters in a “meaningless” game in the pouring rain. Looking at the Jets, it’s a lost season, but the offense is finally starting to come around.
A major concern is LT Olu Fashanu was placed on season-ending IR. Fashanu’s insertion into the starting lineup was a big factor in the Jets' ability to protect Rodgers and perhaps helped unlock the offense. That being said, I don’t think the Bills' pass rush is all that formidable in its current form and both teams will be more than likely to keep the ball on the ground given the weather.
Best Bet: Jets +10 (-110)
9.5 points is too much in a game where the Bills gain nothing by blowing out the Jets. The fact that the Jets scored just 9 points in Week 16 is probably helping to keep this number down, however, I’m not overly concerned with that performance. The Jets could not convert on fourth down and killed multiple drives in that manner.
Josh Allen also hit the injury report with an injury to his throwing arm in last week's game. I’m fairly certain this is just soreness/bruising, and he will be ok, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bills playing a conservative game to protect their players.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
Here’s another gross one as the Cowboys come into Philly off of a home victory against the Bucs. Jalen Hurts is likely to miss this one as he’s yet to clear concussion protocol. That means we’ll be getting Kenny Pickett under center after he looked horrible in relief of Hurts against Washington.
I’ll be backing Philly in this one as I think the number is too depressed given the circumstances. The lookahead here was -10 and in fairness, the drop-off from Hurts to Pickett is likely worth the 3 points, if not more. However, I think both numbers were too short in the first place.
The Cowboys were extremely lucky in their Week 16 victory against Tampa Bay, with a bunch of turnover luck and Brendan Aubrey’s ability to drain 50+ yard field goals. The Philly defense capitulated in Week 16 against Washington, and I think we will see a much better performance against Dallas. Despite scoring 26 points, the Cowboys offense was not good in terms of success rate, and I think the Philly defense is a huge step in class up from Tampa Bay.
Best Bet: Eagles -7 (-110)
Philadelphia is technically still alive for the 1 seed, despite losing a conference game to Washington last week. I think we get a heavy dose of Saquon Barkley in this one and the Eagles should be able to keep this in a positive game state that won’t require much degree of difficulty from Kenny Pickett.
Philly was one Devonta Smith catch away from winning that game against Washington and I think that outcome would heavily impact the Week 17 spread. I think we’re in for a Philadelphia blowout and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take money on gameday.
