As teams push toward the postseason, Week 15 presents strong opportunities in the anytime touchdown market where offensive efficiency meets defensive vulnerability. I have identified two key offensive players who should get plenty of touches in their respective matchups.
These two picks stand out based on utilization and need; both players’ teams need wins to keep their pace in the standings. Let’s break them down. Enjoy the games!
| Sunday, September 13 at 4:25 PM | Spread | Money | Total |
| Washington Commanders |  +5.5 (-110) | +195 |  O 47.5 (-107) |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -5.5 (-110) |  -215 | U 46.5 (-110) |
Raiders at Eagles
Philadelphia’s offense has been unable to get anything going on offense in recent weeks, failing to exceed 21 points in five straight games. Perhaps they get a favorable matchup against Las Vegas this weekend, where they can exploit some mismatches.
The Eagles rank first in the NFL in red-zone efficiency (71%), a critical data point for touchdown props, while the Raiders defense sits outside the top 20 in red-zone defense and allows 25.5 points per game, ranking 24th in the NFL. Las Vegas has also struggled getting off the field, ranking 30th in third-down conversion rate allowed, creating extended drives and additional scoring chances. That is something the Eagles offense desperately needs.
Barkley remains Philadelphia’s primary red-zone weapon. When the Eagles have found success offensively, he has been heavily featured and produced. That was evident earlier this season when Philadelphia scored 38 points at home against the Giants, and Barkley added two touchdowns. He also found the end zone last week against the Chargers, with an explosive 52-yard touchdown run.
The Raiders have allowed the seventh-most touchdowns to running backs this season and rank ninth in total touchdowns allowed per game (3.0). Over the past three weeks, five different running backs have scored against them, and I believe Saquon scores at home once again.
Best Bet: Saquon Barkley Anytime Touchdown (-115, FanDuel)
| Sunday, September 13 at 1:00 PM | Spread | Money | Total |
| New York Jets | +3 (-110) | +136 | O 39.5 (-110) |
| Tennessee Titans | -3 (-110) | -134 | U 38.5 (-110) |
Titans at 49ers
George Kittle offers strong value at plus money in a matchup where San Francisco’s offense should find success vs a lower-ranked Titans squad. The Titans’ defense ranks 29th in scoring defense, allowing (27.5 points/game), and sits 26th in red-zone efficiency allowed, not a good combination against a 49ers offense that ranks (8th) in red-zone efficiency.
Tennessee also allows (3.2 touchdowns/game), the fifth-most in the league. If the 49ers get enough red-zone looks, Kittle will garner 1-2 targets. San Francisco is also one of the best teams in the NFL at sustaining drives, ranking top 10 in numerous categories. They rank (2nd) in third-down conversion rate and (6th) in first downs per game, which increases overall red-zone volume, especially against a porous defense.
While Kittle has yet to score at home this season with Brock Purdy under center, the sample size is extremely limited. The duo has played just one home game together this year. Historically, the connection has been strong, last season, Kittle scored in three of their first five home games together. This season, he has scored in two of his last four games with Purdy and has added four touchdowns over his last eight games overall.
Best Bet: George Kittle Anytime Touchdown (+130, Bet365)
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