NFL Sacks Leader Futures: Myles Garrett Chases History Again

Myles Garrett just did something nobody in NFL history had ever done, and now the sportsbooks think he’s going to do it again. After shattering the single-season sack record in 2025, Garrett sits atop the 2026 sacks leader market as a heavy favorite, but the field chasing him is deeper and scarier than it’s been in years.

How Garrett Rewrote the Record Book

Let’s set the scene, because it matters for how the market is pricing this year. Garrett finished the 2025 season with 23.0 sacks, blowing past the previous record of 22.5 shared by Michael Strahan and T.J. Watt. He didn’t just edge the field, either — Brian Burns finished a distant second at 16.5, meaning Garrett won the crown by six and a half sacks. That kind of gap almost never happens in a stat this competitive. Garrett walked away with Defensive Player of the Year honors and, more importantly for bettors, cemented himself as the built-in favorite heading into a new season.

That’s exactly why oddsmakers have installed him as the clear top choice again. According to lines posted in late July, Garrett sits around +250 to repeat as the league’s sacks leader, with Kalshi’s prediction market pricing him even higher relative to the field — comfortably ahead of every other name on the board. This is a classic futures betting market, where locking in a number months before the season ends can pay off big if you nail the right name early.

Top Contenders

Behind Garrett, the board is a mix of proven double-digit-sack veterans and ascending edge rushers who look ready for a breakout. Aidan Hutchinson checks in as the top challenger in most sportsbook lines, priced around +500 after a Lions defense built around getting after the quarterback. Houston’s tandem of Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. both sit in the +600 range — Hunter is coming off a 15-sack season that ranked third in the league, while Anderson posted a career-high 12.0 sacks of his own playing opposite him. Trey Hendrickson remains in the mix around +650 after another double-digit campaign in Cincinnati, and Denver’s Nik Bonitto has emerged as a market mover after a 12.5-sack breakout that put him firmly on the radar.

Micah Parsons is a fascinating case this year. After being traded from Dallas to Green Bay in a blockbuster deal that also made him the highest-paid non-quarterback in NFL history, Parsons now anchors a Packers defense instead of the unit he built his reputation with in Dallas. Some books still have him priced as high as +1200, reflecting some uncertainty about scheme fit and health after an injury-shortened prior year, while others view that as a buying opportunity given his talent level. T.J. Watt, a three-time sacks champion himself, is drawing value bets in the +1600 range — a number several analysts have flagged as underpriced given his track record of finishing near the top of this leaderboard virtually every healthy season.

Why the Market Trusts Garrett Again

Volume and opportunity both favor Garrett repeating. He’s now averaging well over a sack per game across a stretch that includes some of the most dominant pass-rushing tape in recent memory, and Cleveland’s defensive scheme is built to funnel pressure through him as the focal point. At 29 years old, Garrett already ranks inside the top 25 all-time in career sacks, and last season proved he hasn’t hit a ceiling yet.

Garrett’s 23-sack season beat the next closest player by 6.5 sacks — a gap wider than the distance between second and eighth place on last year’s leaderboard.

That gap is the whole story for bettors weighing value against the favorite. A number that lopsided suggests either an outlier season that regresses toward the field, or a generational player operating on a different plane entirely. The safer read: some regression toward the field is likely simply because 23 sacks is an extreme outlier by any historical measure, but “regression” for Garrett could still mean an 18-sack season that comfortably leads the league again.

Where this gets interesting for value hunters is the second tier. Houston’s dual threat of Hunter and Anderson could actually work against each other in this specific market — double-team attention and shared pass-rush snaps mean neither may separate from the other enough to individually challenge for the crown, even though the Texans defense as a whole should again wreck opposing offensive lines. That’s worth weighing against a name like Bonitto, who doesn’t share a backfield with another double-digit-sack threat and has real room to see his number balloon in a featured role.

The Best Bet

Betting against Garrett after a historic, record-breaking season is never comfortable, but the value math on a repeat at inflated short odds isn’t nearly as attractive as spreading exposure into the chasing pack. The smartest approach treats Garrett as the anchor of a small-field parlay or straight bet at plus money, while pairing him with a longer-odds value play from the tier just behind him. For a full look at how the board is shaping up across the league, check our futures odds hub before locking anything in.

• Pick: Myles Garrett (+250) to repeat as sacks leader
• Value alternative: T.J. Watt (+1600) as a hedge with real track-record backing

Garrett is the safest anchor bet on the board, but Watt’s history of finishing at or near the top of this leaderboard makes him one of the sharpest value plays sitting outside the top tier of favorites right now.