Some Sunday night games are just appointment television, and this one has every ingredient. The Dallas Cowboys (2-3) head to Lambeau Field to face the Green Bay Packers (3-2) on Sunday, October 18 at 8:20 PM ET on NBC, Peacock and NFL+. The last time these two teams met, they played to a 40-40 tie, the highest-scoring tie of the Super Bowl era. Now they get a rematch under the lights in Wisconsin, and if you like points, drama and a little chaos with your Sunday dinner, this is the one to clear your schedule for.
The Line That Flipped on Everybody
Here is a fun bit of betting trivia to bring to the couch. The game opened with Dallas as a slight 1.5-point favorite, but the market quickly changed its mind. Green Bay flipped to a one-point favorite and then settled at -1.5, with the Packers at -102 and the Cowboys at +1.5 (-118) at DraftKings. On the moneyline, Green Bay sits around -118 to -120 while Dallas is priced at roughly even money, between -102 and +100.
The total tells an even better story. It opened around 50.5 to 51.5 and has climbed to 52.5 and 53.5, with the Over priced at -115 and the Under at -105. When the number goes up and the favorite changes in the same week, bettors are telling you they expect a track meet. If you want to see how a spread like this turns into a payout, our guide to how betting odds work breaks it down in plain English.
ESPN’s FPI sees it as a true coin flip, giving Dallas a slim 0.6-point edge and a 52 percent win probability. The Cowboys are also 2-0 against the spread as an underdog this season, so the number says Packers while the computers whisper Cowboys.
Two Offenses Built for the Bright Lights
Green Bay arrives on a high after a 31-7 rout of the Bears. Jordan Love completed 25 of 31 passes for 367 yards and two touchdowns for a 137.5 passer rating, his best game of the season, and he went out of his way to praise receiver Christian Watson afterward. Matthew Golden has also been carving out a bigger role in the Packers passing game. For the season, Love has thrown for 1,408 yards and 10 touchdowns against three interceptions on 112 of 185 passing. The Packers have been a bit of a rollercoaster, though. Their last five games include a 39-22 loss at Minnesota, a 20-17 overtime win at the Jets, a 35-14 loss to Atlanta, a 17-14 win at Tampa Bay and that blowout of Chicago.
Dallas is licking its wounds after a 24-16 home loss to a previously winless Tampa Bay team. Dak Prescott threw for 316 yards but only one touchdown, and both of his interceptions came off tipped balls. The bigger concern was the defense, which allowed 241 rushing yards and 189 passing yards to rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels and now ranks last in the league against the run. Prescott still has strong season numbers at 129 of 192 for 1,381 yards, nine touchdowns and three interceptions. Dallas has traded wins and losses throughout the last five games, with a 34-30 win at Houston and a 37-20 win over Washington sitting alongside losses to Baltimore and the Giants.
The injury report is where the entertainment value really gets interesting. Dallas will be without offensive tackle Drew Shelton (hamstring) and cornerback Cobie Durant (hamstring), and defensive tackle LT Overton (foot), linebacker DeMarvion Overshown (hamstring) and cornerbacks Joey Porter Jr. (ankle) and Ameer Speed (knee) are all questionable. Green Bay has it worse up front, ruling out defensive tackles Javon Hargrave (Achilles) and Jonathan Ford (calf), receiver and returner Skyy Moore (ankle) and cornerback Benjamin St-Juste (hamstring). Defensive tackle Jordon Riley is doubtful, and guard Aaron Banks is among the questionable players. A thin Packers interior against a Cowboys offense that can move the ball is exactly how shootouts get started.
A Rivalry That Has Been Lopsided, Except When It Is Not
The history is a delicious contradiction. Green Bay is 10-1-1 in the last 12 meetings, and the Cowboys have not beaten the Packers since 2016. Prescott has not beaten Green Bay since his rookie season. Yet last year’s meeting ended in a 40-40 tie, the highest-scoring tie in the Super Bowl era, so all those Packers wins did not exactly come with a guarantee of a boring night.
That is what makes this such a fun watch. Dallas has a long drought to snap, Lambeau Field on a primetime Sunday is one of the great stages in the sport, and neither defense is in a position to dominate. If you plan to bet along with friends, a quick look at the NFL betting guide is a good way to get oriented before kickoff, and you can compare current numbers on the NFL odds page.
Prediction and Best Bet
Everything points to a game that is closer and louder than the point spread suggests. Green Bay has the better recent form, the home crowd and a quarterback coming off his best game of the year, but its defensive line is badly depleted. Dallas has the hotter quarterback track record against this opponent’s number and a defense that cannot stop the run, which keeps the Packers’ offense on the field. Expect both quarterbacks to put up numbers and the game to come down to the final possession, as it did last year. The Packers get a narrow edge for home field.
- Prediction: Green Bay Packers 31, Dallas Cowboys 28
- Best Bet: Over 53.5 total points
The total has already climbed, but the matchup justifies it. Two shaky defenses, a banged-up Packers interior, the league’s worst run defense on the other sideline and a rivalry that produced 80 points last time out make the Over the most fun and the most logical way to have a stake in this game.
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