Look for O'Connell to exploit a weak Chargers defense and go over his passing yards prop.
Another significant injury to a starting quarterback leaves the NFL in a position where Easton Stick and Aidan O'Connell look likely to start for the Chargers and Raiders this Thursday night in primetime. LA starter Justin Herbert, who was among the preseason favorites to win the 2023 NFL MVP award, has seen his disappointing season come to an end after fracturing the index finger on his throwing hand during the team's loss to Denver.
The Herbert announcement has caused massive shifts in both the spread and total for Thursday's AFC West divisional matchup. The Raiders now find themselves favored by a field goal at home after the number opened with the Chargers listed as 3.5-point favorites.
On the total front, some lucky bettors had the chance to wager on this game at 42.5 points. Following the injury news, the current over/under has settled at 34.
Last Sunday, the Raiders played in a historically low-scoring game against the Vikings. According to the AP's Mark Anderson, Minnesota's 3-0 victory in Vegas was the lowest final score in the league since 2007, the third time that two teams have ended a game 3-0 in 40 seasons, and just the seventh time that score has occurred in the Super Bowl era (since 1967).
It hasn't gone much better for LA recently. The Chargers scored six points in a shutout win against the Patriots two Sundays ago and lost 24-7 to Denver at home this past weekend. They've gained an average of 267 yards per game and scored 23 total points over their last three contests, including a 20-10 loss to Baltimore as well.
Needless to say, this isn't expected to be one of the higher-drawing TNF games that Amazon Prime has put forth this season. Our prop wagers for last week's Patriots-Steelers meeting finished 1-1, and we present our prop card for this Thursday's game in the hopes of cashing in during a potentially challenging viewing experience.
The Chargers defense has given up more significant numbers on the ground of late but still ranks in the bottom ten among NFL teams in passing TDs allowed (23rd), net yards per pass attempt (27th), and passing defense overall (29th).
The Raiders have struggled to gain yards on the ground in 2023, averaging the fewest yards per carry (3.5) and posting the lowest rushing total among all teams.
O'Connell is averaging 35.3 throws in Las Vegas's last three games while posting 6.5 yards per attempt and 230 yards per game.
In the absence of Herbert, James is arguably the most important player on the team. He has played every defensive snap for the Chargers in four of five games entering this week and 93% of reps this season.
James has 20 combined tackles, 15 solo, and a sack in his last two games.
James has been targeted less as the primary defender this season, down to 3.3 times per game from 4.1 in the two combined seasons before 2023. However, he's blitzing 2.2 times per game, a noticeable increase from the 1.5 times per game from 2021 to '22.
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Nicholas Berault is a proud Penn State alum whose past work has been featured on FantasyPros. He is an avid golfer and a collector of pin flags and sneakers. As a senior writer at EatWatchBet, Nicholas serves as an NFL, CFB, and NBA betting analyst.
