3 NFL Best-of-the-Board Props to Back This Sunday

Sunday’s NFL slate has a little bit of everything, but the real fireworks are saved for the nightcap: Josh Allen and the Bills fly out to SoFi Stadium to face Matthew Stafford and a Rams team that’s been playing lights-out defense. Add in a Jets-Browns tilt at MetLife where New York is suddenly forced into pass-first mode, and you’ve got a board loaded with juicy numbers.

We went best-ball on this one and pulled the three strongest props from across the entire slate, no matter the position. Two superstars in the week’s marquee matchup and one post-injury value play that the market may not have fully adjusted for yet. Here’s where we’re putting our money this Sunday (and Monday night).

Puka Nacua Eats Buffalo’s Shaky Secondary Alive

Let’s not overthink this one: Puka Nacua is playing the best football of any wide receiver not named Ja’Marr Chase right now, and he’s lined up across from the NFL’s 27th-ranked pass defense. Buffalo is surrendering 256.3 passing yards per game, and offensive coordinators around the league have noticed. Nacua just torched Philadelphia for 9 catches on 12 targets for 125 yards, and he’s commanding a target share that’s basically unrivaled in football.

The receiving yards line has moved around in the 92.5-to-94.5 range depending on the book, and recent history says bet the over without blinking. In the Rams’ last meeting with Buffalo, Nacua went for 162 yards. He’s also averaging nearly 100 yards a game across his limited action this season, and Stafford has been slinging it at an elite clip with the Rams sitting second in the NFL in passing offense. When a top-five receiver draws a bottom-five secondary on national television, you take the number and run.

Josh Allen Still Finds a Way, Even Against a Stingy Rams D

Here’s the tricky part about Monday night: the Rams defense isn’t just good, it might be the best unit Josh Allen sees all year. Los Angeles ranks second in the NFL in total yards allowed (247.5 per game) and is suffocating opposing quarterbacks to the tune of a 53.5% completion rate and just 4.8 yards per attempt. That’s a legitimately nasty matchup on paper.

But this is also Josh Allen we’re talking about, the guy who can move the chains with his legs the moment a defense clamps down through the air. His passing yards number has been posted in the 240-to-250 range, and even against a stout Rams front, Allen has the rushing equity to make up any gap the yardage number doesn’t cover on its own. The last time these two offenses met, Allen and Stafford combined for 662 passing yards in a 44-42 shootout, and while nobody expects a repeat track meet against this version of the Rams defense, Allen has been death-by-a-thousand-cuts all year through the air and on the ground. Betting him to hit his passing total, or pairing it with his rushing floor, is the smart way to attack a game where Buffalo may be forced to throw from behind.

Garrett Wilson Becomes the Whole Offense With Breece Hall Out

This is the value pick of the week, and it’s hiding in plain sight. Breece Hall has been ruled out again for Sunday’s game against Cleveland, marking his second straight absence with a lingering quad injury. Last week, with Hall sidelined, the Jets’ run game completely stalled out, managing a measly 59 yards on the ground. That means Geno Smith is throwing early, often, and mostly in one direction: Garrett Wilson.

Wilson has already soaked up 31 targets on the season for a team-best 270 yards, and he’s facing a Browns defense that ranks 24th in the league against the pass, allowing 235.3 yards per game through the air. Even better, Cleveland plays more man coverage than almost any defense in football, and Wilson has been an absolute problem against man all year, posting elite numbers in yards per route run and target share when teams play him straight up. With his receiving yards number sitting right around 69.5, and the Jets almost guaranteed to be pass-heavy with their backfield gutted, this is the kind of market inefficiency bettors dream about.

Lock These In

Three different games, three different situations, but the same theme: go where the numbers point. Nacua against a leaky Buffalo secondary, Allen’s floor against an elite Rams defense, and Wilson inheriting a Jets passing game that has nowhere else to go. Check your book for the latest line movement before kickoff, but here’s how we’re stacking Sunday’s board.

• Puka Nacua OVER 92.5 Receiving Yards (check your book for current odds)
• Josh Allen OVER 243.5 Passing Yards (check your book for current odds)
• Garrett Wilson OVER 69.5 Receiving Yards (check your book for current odds)

If you’re building a same game parlay for Monday night, Nacua and Allen both hitting their numbers is as strong a combo as you’ll find anywhere on the board this week.