Sunday’s NFL slate is stacked, and the best-of-the-board approach is simple: find the spots where the line is lagging behind what the player is actually doing. This week that points to one quarterback who keeps smashing his number and two pass-catchers who treat the end zone like a second home.
Our three plays span the 1 p.m. window and the late afternoon doubleheader, so you get action from kickoff to the final CBS and FOX windows. Lines and odds move, so check your book before you lock anything in, but here is why these three stand out.
Bryce Young Over 234.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Carolina heads to Philadelphia at 1 p.m. ET as a 3.5-point favorite, and the quarterback driving that is playing the best football of his career. Bryce Young has cleared 229.5 passing yards in six straight games, and he came out of the bye with a 29-of-41, 329-yard, two-touchdown performance in a 32-26 win over Detroit. Through four games he had 1,268 yards, the second-most by a Panthers quarterback through four games since Cam Newton’s rookie season, and his 317 yards per game lead the NFL.
The offense backs it up. Carolina ranks second in the league in passing yards per game at 301.3 and third in total yards at 405.8 per game. Young has nine touchdown passes against two interceptions, and the knee that was on the radar is a non-issue: he practiced fully on Friday and is not on the Week 6 injury report.
The matchup tilts the right way, too. Philadelphia will start Tanner McKee with Jalen Hurts out and Saquon Barkley also sidelined, which flipped the Eagles from early favorites to home underdogs. A team playing from behind or trading punches with a high-powered offense is exactly the script that feeds a pass-heavy Panthers attack. Philadelphia’s defense has been solid on completion percentage, but it has still given up 306 passing yards to Jacksonville, and the Eagles sit 31st in net yards per attempt allowed. At 234.5, this number is far below Young’s season average. We will happily take the over.
Brock Bowers Anytime Touchdown (-114)
Las Vegas hosts Buffalo at 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS, and Brock Bowers has made a habit of finding the end zone. After missing the first two games following a meniscus trim, he has scored a touchdown in all three of his appearances, piling up 24 catches for 312 yards and three scores on 35 targets. That includes a 13-yard touchdown from Kirk Cousins in last week’s loss to New England.
The defense he faces is a gift. Buffalo has allowed 13 passing touchdowns, the second-most in the league, and ranks 28th in pass defense DVOA. The Bills also own the sixth-worst red zone defense in football, allowing touchdowns on 76.19 percent of opponent trips. Pair that with a Raiders team that is expected to be chasing points against a high-scoring Buffalo offense, and the targets should keep coming. Bowers has seen 14, 11 and 10 targets in his three healthy games.
His receiving yards line sits at 77.5, which tells you how much volume the books expect. When a tight end is that involved in the passing game and the defense leaks scores through the air, the anytime touchdown price at around -114 is reasonable for a player who has found the end zone every time he has suited up this year.
Davante Adams Anytime Touchdown (-125)
Davante Adams and SoFi Stadium are a match made in heaven. All four of his touchdowns this season have come at home, two against the Giants in Week 2 and two against the Bills in Week 5, and he has nine touchdown receptions in his previous six SoFi games dating back to 2025. Arizona visits Los Angeles at 4:05 p.m. ET on FOX.
The red zone numbers explain why. Adams has a 53.5 percent share of his team’s red zone targets, the third-highest in the league behind Amon-Ra St. Brown at 69.6 percent and Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 73.3 percent. His 34 end-zone targets since last year are 13 more than anyone else at the position.
Arizona’s defense is the other half of the story. The Cardinals have allowed 14 passing touchdowns, tied for the most in the league, and 10 of those 14 red zone passing scores have gone to wide receivers. With the Rams favored by a wide margin, Matthew Stafford should have plenty of scoring chances, and he has made no secret of where he likes to look when the field shrinks. Even with Puka Nacua back in the lineup, Adams scored twice last week. The price is a little steeper at -125, but the role is hard to beat.
Lock These In
Three plays, three different game scripts, one common theme: usage plus a leaky opponent. If you want to brush up on how prop markets and prices work before you build your card, our NFL betting guide covers the fundamentals, and the odds converter helps you compare prices across books.
- Bryce Young OVER 234.5 passing yards (-115)
- Brock Bowers anytime touchdown (-114)
- Davante Adams anytime touchdown (-125)
Odds are as of Saturday and can shift before kickoff, so shop around for the best number. Enjoy the games, and may your quarterback keep slinging and your tight end and receiver keep cashing.
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