Week 12 is here as we are counting down the days until Thanksgiving. Week 12 is a hefty bye week with the Falcons, Bills, Bengals, Saints, Jets, and Jaguars all getting the week off. Thanksgiving is always a big time for the NFL and I think we can identify some lookahead spots on the schedule.
Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts
Alright folks, starting off strong with a play that’s tough to stomach, but I think we’ve reached the pinnacle of the Detroit Lions season. The 9-1 Lions look unstoppable after a 52-6 blowout of the Jaguars in Week 11. It’s going to be a surprise to most but we actually have to give the Lions a slight downgrade after that game. They put up 52 points against a hapless Jaguars team led by Mac Jones, who only achieved 10 first downs in the entire game.
Unfortunately for the Lions, they lost LB Alex Anzalone during that game, which is a huge piece for their defense already missing star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson. I have some serious concern for this Lions defense that doesn’t have a ton of talent. I think recent matchups and situations have propped up this defense and they are in for a tough end to the season.
Enter the Indianapolis Colts, who reinstated Anthony Richardson into the starting QB role. Richardson looked much better in this game after being benched. HC Shane Steichen also had a great game plan against the Jets, committing to the ground game despite some inefficiency, and allowing Richardson to within his abilities.
The Lions have a short week coming up as they play a divisional game against the Bears at noon on Thursday (Thanksgiving.) If there was ever a spot where a team might get overlooked, it would be a non-conference road game leading up to a short week.
Best Bet: Colts +7.5
I’m betting the Colts here at +7.5, which is just too many points for a good offense going up against what I project to end up being a poor defense. The Indy defense is nothing to write home about, however, in possibly rainy and slightly windy conditions on Sunday, I expect the Lions offensive output to be hampered.
If Indy can dominate the clock and keep the ball on the ground against a depleted Lions front seven, I think the Colts have a chance to take this one outright.
Bonus: Vikings to win the NFC North is way too big of a price. The Lions still have GB, Buffalo, and SF on the schedule to close out the year, before playing Minnesota in Week 18. This could be a good entry to buy Vikings futures
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders
Look away Cowboys fans. Dallasm comes into Washington as ten point underdogs with Cooper Rush at the helm. The Cowboys injury report was particularly concerning on top of this with Jake Ferguson expected to miss and CeeDee Lamb banged up.
It’s hard to say Dallas is looking ahead to anything at this point in their season, however, they do play the Giants on Thanksgiving, on top of coming off MNF. This is an extremely tough spot in the NFL schedule. Despite a short sample size, teams in this position (coming off MNF and looking ahead to TNF) are awful ATS and are playing to the over at almost a 75% clip.
I think the stars are aligned here for both the trends and the matchup. The Commanders are scuffling a bit, dropping two straight games. They go up against a soft Cowboys defense that can’t stop anyone on the ground which is Washington’s bread and butter. I expect Kliff Kingsbury to use this as a “get right” spot for his offense as we head towards the final part of the schedule.
Best Bets: Commanders -10 and Over 44.5
I can’t agree with the line movement we’ve seen mid-week that saw some of the +10.5’s in market get back down to -10. (The initial movement pushed this game from -9.5 to -10.5). There are multiple -10’s still out there and I’m happy to bet that. I’ll be putting a half stake on -10 and also betting some alts at -14.5 and -17.5.
The over is a play for me as well as we’re seeing a big of a straddle around 45 in market. Many books were pushed up to 45.5, which I agree with, but there are multiple stale 44.5’s in market. I’d bet the over at 44.5 -115 or better.
