3 Monday Night Props to Back for Falcons vs Saints: Olave, Shough, and a Hooper Fade

Monday Night Football rolls into the Caesars Superdome with the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints renewing their NFC South rivalry, and this one has a little extra juice attached to it — it doubles as the 20th anniversary of the Saints’ emotional “Domecoming” game from 2006. New Orleans is favored at home by 2.5 with the total sitting at 45.5, and while the records (1-2 apiece) suggest two teams still figuring things out, the prop board is loaded with value if you know where to look.

We went digging across all three phases of this game — Saints passing attack, Saints receiving corps, and Falcons pass-catchers — and landed on three props we like for very different reasons. One is a straightforward volume play, one is a quietly efficient passer riding a hot stretch, and one requires a little more nuance than the betting market might be pricing in. Let’s break all three down.

Chris Olave Anytime Touchdown (+125)

Chris Olave has been the engine of this Saints passing game through three weeks, and the betting market knows it — he’s sitting right behind Alvin Kamara in the anytime touchdown market at odds hovering around +120 to +125 depending on the book. Olave has seen a massive workload early in the season, piling up 36 targets through three games, and he’s developed real rapport with Tyler Shough, who has thrown for 917 yards and eight touchdowns in his first three starts of the year.

What makes this appealing isn’t just the volume — it’s the red-zone equity. Projection models have Olave in the 0.5-0.6 expected touchdown range for this game, translating to roughly a coin-flip shot at finding paydirt, which lines up neatly with the plus-money price being offered. The Falcons also won’t have their full complement of pass-rushers rested and ready; Atlanta’s defense is questionable at a couple of spots up front, and limiting explosive plays while still bending for scores near the goal line has been a theme early this season. With a line also posted at 85.5 receiving yards, Olave’s the headliner of this Saints passing attack, and the anytime touchdown market gives you a shot at cashing without needing him to hit a specific yardage total.

Tyler Shough Passing Touchdowns Over 1.5

Tyler Shough has quietly been one of the more productive young quarterbacks in the league through the first month of the season, and the numbers back it up. He’s completed 68.9% of his passes for 917 yards with eight touchdowns against just three interceptions — a 99.2 passer rating that ranks near the top of the league. Last week against the Raiders, Shough threw for 255 yards and four touchdowns, spreading the ball to Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant for two scores apiece.

The over 1.5 passing touchdowns prop, priced in the range of -133 to +112 depending on the sportsbook, is squarely in play given Shough’s recent form. He’s thrown multiple touchdown passes in every game this season, and the Falcons’ defense has had its own injury questions up front, which could open up opportunities for New Orleans to move the ball through the air. Shough has also shown he’s not just a checkdown merchant — he’s spreading touchdowns around to multiple weapons, including Olave, Johnson, and Fant, which makes clearing 1.5 touchdown passes a realistic target even with Fant himself banged up and listed as questionable. If the Saints need to play from ahead or keep pace in a game total set at 45.5, expect Shough to let it fly.

Austin Hooper Receiving Yards Over/Under 10.5

This is the prop that rewards doing your homework instead of just trusting the name recognition. Austin Hooper is a well-known veteran tight end who’s caught passes in the league for a decade, but his role in Atlanta’s 2026 offense has been modest so far — four receptions for 31 yards on six targets through three games, a line that works out to barely over 10 yards per game. He’s firmly the No. 3 target in the passing game behind Drake London and the Falcons’ running backs, and his longest catch of the season has gone for just 13 yards.

That context matters a lot for a 10.5 yards prop. Hooper has cleared that number in only one of his three outings so far, and his usage has been inconsistent — zero targets in Week 1, four in Week 2, two in Week 3. If the Falcons lean on the ground game or feed London and the running backs more heavily again, the under becomes the more defensible side of this number. This is a prop where the smart play is reading the role rather than the name, and right now Hooper’s early-season workload says modest totals, not a repeat trip over double digits. Check the latest NFL odds board before locking in any of these numbers, since lines can move right up to kickoff.

Monday Night Best Bets

Put it all together and this is a three-pronged approach that touches both sides of the ball and multiple prop categories — touchdown equity, passing volume, and situational tight end usage. Here’s how we’re stacking our card for Falcons-Saints:

• Chris Olave Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+125)
• Tyler Shough Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (around -133)
• Austin Hooper Under 10.5 Receiving Yards

Shough and Olave give you exposure to the more explosive side of this Monday night script, while fading Hooper’s yardage total plays the role he’s actually been given rather than the one his reputation suggests. That’s the kind of balance that makes for a fun, well-rounded slate heading into primetime.