3 Best Props to Back for Patriots vs Bears on Thursday Night Football

Thursday Night Football is back, and it has brought a pair of 4-2 teams to Soldier Field. The New England Patriots, winners of three straight after a 26-19 win over the Jets, visit the Chicago Bears, who just knocked off Atlanta 31-23 with Caleb Williams back under center. Kickoff is 8:15 PM ET on Prime Video, with Chicago a field-goal favorite and the total sitting around 50.5.

We skipped the usual position-by-position routine this week and went with the best of the board instead: the three prop bets we like most, no matter who they play for or where they line up. Two of them involve Chicago wideouts who are getting fed by a healthy quarterback, and one is a bruising Patriots back who keeps finding the end zone when the Patriots get close. Grab a snack, pull up your sportsbook, and let’s get into it.

Luther Burden III Over 55.5 Receiving Yards: The Slot Machine Pays Out

Luther Burden III has quietly become the guy in Chicago’s passing game. Through six games he has 31 catches on 44 targets for 361 yards, good for 60.2 yards per game and the team lead in receiving yardage. That already clears a line of 55.5 before you even factor in the quarterback upgrade.

And that upgrade is real. With Caleb Williams back from his hamstring injury in Week 6, Burden caught all eight of his targets for 95 yards, a season high, mostly on short, quick throws over the middle. His longest play was a 25-yard catch and run. A perfect catch rate is a small-sample thrill, but the dependable-weekly-option label is starting to stick.

There is one thing to be honest about: Burden ran a route on only 19 of Chicago’s 45 dropbacks last week, so his snap count is not a given. But the Patriots have been generous to receivers lately, with an opposing pass catcher topping 100 receiving yards in each of their last three games. FanDuel Research likes the Over at 55.5 (-114), and other books have the number up to 56.5 or 57.5, so shop around and grab the lowest line you can find.

Rome Odunze Over 44.5 Receiving Yards: The Most Underrated Snap Hog in Chicago

Rome Odunze is the fun contrarian play here. His season has been a quiet one: 20 catches for 312 yards in six games, about 5.5 targets a game and a 17.9% target share. He had just three catches for 39 yards against Atlanta. So why back him? Because the line has dropped to a spot that his actual role should clear.

Odunze is on the field constantly. He played 96% of the Bears’ snaps last week, led the team in routes run and has seen his snap share climb from 86% to 98% over the last two games. He also accounts for roughly a third of Chicago’s air yards, which means the big plays are routed through him even when the box score is skinny. Fantasy Team Advice projects him at 61.0 yards against a prop line of 44.5, which is a gap of more than 37%, and recommends the Over at -115.

Pair that with a Patriots defense that ranks 15th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and has given up big days to Keon Coleman and Omar Cooper Jr., and a 45-yard line looks like a gift. If Chicago’s offense scores in the neighborhood of its implied team total of about 27 points, a player seeing this much volume should find his yards. Lines are floating between 44.5 and 46.5, so check your book.

Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime Touchdown: Big Back, Big Price

Our third pick is the one with a little spice. Rhamondre Stevenson is priced at -110 or so to score at any time, which is basically a coin flip, and he has the touchdown résumé to back it. He has 71 carries for 263 yards and two rushing touchdowns, scored in back-to-back games on October 4 and October 11, plus 15 catches for 111 yards as a receiver.

Yes, the backfield is crowded. TreVeyon Henderson and Corey Kiner are in the mix, and Stevenson managed just 14 carries for 36 yards against the Jets while seeing no targets. But he still got twice the rushing workload of Henderson in that game, and at 6-foot and roughly 227 pounds, he is the bruiser the Patriots turn to near the goal line. Henderson, by contrast, has logged no carries inside the five, according to one projection source.

The matchup gets better with Patriots guards Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown probably out and tackle Morgan Moses questionable with a foot injury. That is a real concern for the run game, but it is also a reason New England may lean on short-yardage power over splash plays. If you want a longer shot, Stevenson to score the first touchdown has been listed around +700 to +750. If you want a safer add, his receiving yards Over 18.5 is also on the board.

The Card: Three Bets, One Cozy Thursday Night

Here is the full slate of bets from this week’s best-of-the-board approach. Two Bears receivers getting looks from a healthy quarterback, plus one Patriots running back with a nose for the end zone. Line numbers vary by book, so always confirm before you bet.

• Luther Burden III OVER 55.5 receiving yards (-114)
• Rome Odunze OVER 44.5 receiving yards (-115)
• Rhamondre Stevenson anytime touchdown scorer (-110)

Cook something good, settle in, and let the Bears’ wideouts do the heavy lifting. Check out our NFL betting guide if you want a refresher before you bet, and as always, play responsibly.