3 Best Props to Back for Commanders vs. Giants on TNF

Thursday Night Football is back at MetLife Stadium, and the NFC East has handed us a rematch with plenty of baggage. The Washington Commanders (2-5-1) travel to face the New York Giants (5-2-1) on Prime Video at 8:15 PM ET, with the Giants favored by about 2.5 points and the total sitting around 41.5. These two already played to a 27-27 tie in Week 5, so nobody is walking in feeling like they have the other team figured out.

That is exactly the kind of setup that makes the prop board interesting. Instead of picking a side and hoping, we went through the whole board and pulled the three props that look the most beatable, no matter the position. Two of them lean on a Giants pass defense that has quietly become one of the stingiest in football, and one is a bet on a quarterback who has a very specific history with this defense.

Stefon Diggs UNDER 41.5 Receiving Yards

Diggs leads Washington with 30 catches for 303 yards and five touchdowns, and with Terry McLaurin out for the season he is the undisputed WR1. The problem is that WR1 on this offense has not translated into a fat yardage line. His last three games read 44, 38 and 51 yards, all comfortably in the neighborhood of this number, and none of them cleared 52. Over the two games without McLaurin he has averaged only 5.5 targets and 89 total yards. Even last week against the Rams, nearly all of his 51 yards came on one 42-yard grab on the final drive.

The matchup does not help. New York allows just 177.8 passing yards per game, third-best in the league, and has given up a 100-yard receiving game to only one opposing receiver all season. The Giants also rank third in blitz rate, which means quick throws and a lot of Daniels running for his life. Diggs has also stayed under his receiving yards number in 12 of his last 18 games. He is a touchdown threat, but we are not betting on a touchdown here. We are betting on yards, and the yards have been hard to find.

Jayden Daniels OVER 33.5 Rushing Yards

This one is the contrarian play. Daniels has been quiet on the ground lately, running for 23 or fewer yards in three straight games and only 49 yards on 10 carries over that stretch. That is exactly why the number has sunk to the low 30s for a quarterback who ran for 891 yards in 2024 and is averaging 8.1 yards per carry this season on 252 rushing yards.

Here is what the recent box scores are missing: Daniels gashed this exact defense in Week 5, rushing nine times for 103 yards and two touchdowns. The Giants’ own website admits the defense has struggled at times to contain quarterbacks who use their legs, and calls this week’s matchup against Daniels potentially the toughest of that type. His elbow is listed as a full participant on the injury report, so health is not the worry. With the Giants ranking third in blitz rate and Washington’s receiving corps down to Diggs and a rookie, scramble lanes are going to open up. The over is available at 33.5 (-115 at bet365), and it only takes one broken play to blow past it.

Antonio Williams UNDER 41.5 Receiving Yards

Williams, the rookie, has had a nice stretch of targets, going from three to four to seven and then six last week. But targets have not turned into production against good secondaries. He caught five passes for 54 yards against Philadelphia, then three for 25 against the Rams. On the season he has 26 catches for 284 yards and one touchdown, an average of 35.5 yards per game, and he has cleared his receiving yardage prop in only three of seven games.

He also caught just three passes for 31 yards in the Week 5 tie with these Giants. At 7.3 yards per target he is not an efficient volume play, and the Giants’ third-ranked pass defense does not hand out easy yards. Some projections land in the high 40s, but we are not buying that against this defense with Daniels likely to be under pressure. The line sits at 41.5 (-115) at BetMGM, with some books at 40.5, so shop around for the best number.

The Card for Thursday Night

Here is where the game line stands heading into kickoff.

Thursday, November 12 at 8:15 PM	Spread	Money	Total
Washington Commanders	+2.5 (-111)	+120	O 41.5 (100)
New York Giants	-2.5 (-110)	-134	U 41 (-108)

If you want to keep your bets organized, the player prop search tool is a handy place to compare numbers across books before you lock anything in. And if you are new to this kind of wager, our NFL betting guide covers the basics. Here is the full slate of bets:

• Stefon Diggs UNDER 41.5 receiving yards (-118 at BetMGM)
• Jayden Daniels OVER 33.5 rushing yards (-115 at bet365)
• Antonio Williams UNDER 41.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)

Two unders on a shorthanded Washington receiving group and one over on a quarterback who torched this defense last time out. Lines move fast on short weeks, so check the number before you bet. Enjoy the game, and bet responsibly.