3 Best of the Board Props to Back for Falcons vs Packers on TNF

Thursday Night Football rolls into Lambeau Field this week, and the Atlanta Falcons bring a genuinely fascinating subplot with them: Michael Penix Jr. is back under center for the first time since tearing his ACL last November. The Falcons and Packers kick off at 8:15 p.m. ET on September 24, and while the overall betting market is still figuring out how to price a Penix-led offense, the player prop board has already produced some serious value if you know where to look.

We dug through three markets this week and came away with a mixed bag that spans both sidelines — a receiver getting overlooked because of a shaky opener, a Falcons alpha wideout who should feast on a Packers secondary that’s been surprisingly generous, and a Green Bay tight end quietly putting up receiving numbers that make his line look like a typo. Here are the three best bets on the board for Falcons-Packers.

Kyle Pitts Cashes In With Penix Throwing Him the Ball

Kyle Pitts’ receiving yards prop is sitting at 35.5 (-114) at BetMGM this week, and on the surface that might look aggressive given Pitts managed just 15 yards on one catch in Atlanta’s ugly Week 3 loss to Carolina. But that game was started by Cooper Rush, not Penix — and the entire equation changes with Penix back at the controls.

Last season, when Penix was the Falcons’ starting quarterback before his knee injury, Pitts averaged 41.7 receiving yards per game and cleared 50 yards in four of nine games. Penix targeted Pitts as a legitimate seam threat, not just a checkdown option, and that chemistry doesn’t just disappear over one offseason. With Penix officially reclaiming the job for this Thursday night matchup, Pitts profiles as one of the biggest beneficiaries on the roster.

Green Bay’s defense has also been surprisingly hittable through the air — Green Bay ranks a middling 9th in yards allowed per game but has surrendered a brutal 85.7% completion rate, second-worst in the league. A quarterback getting comfortable completions to his tight end over the middle is exactly the kind of thing that shows up against this Packers defense.

Drake London Feasts as Atlanta’s Clear No. 1 Target

Drake London’s receiving yards prop sits at 62.5 (-115) for Thursday, and multiple sharp betting models have him projected well above that number — projections in the 62-to-72-yard range, with a consensus settling right around 67 yards. That’s real market disagreement, and it’s leaning the over.

London is Atlanta’s unquestioned top receiver, and with Penix back throwing the football, expect the offense to lean on its most trusted weapon early and often. London saw double-digit targets in stretches last season when Penix was the starter, and there’s no reason to think that usage pattern changes now that the Falcons’ original starting QB is back in the building.

Green Bay’s secondary has had its moments, but the volume argument for London is strong regardless of matchup: he’s going to see the ball a lot in a game where Atlanta may need to play catch-up on the road against a Packers team that’s tough to run on. When the Falcons are forced to throw, London is target number one.

Tucker Kraft Is Quietly a Must-Play Prop

This is the pick that should jump off the page. Tucker Kraft’s receiving yards prop is set at just 44.5 (-115), but Kraft is averaging 65.0 receiving yards per game so far in 2026. He opened the season with a 65-yard, three-catch showing against the Vikings before a quieter follow-up outing, and last season — before a knee injury ended his year in Week 9 — Kraft was on a historic pace, becoming just the fifth tight end since the 1970 merger to reach 30-plus catches, 475-plus yards, and six-plus touchdowns through his first eight games.

Kraft also carries a 3.5 receptions prop this week, and with Green Bay expected to lean on structured, efficient passing to move the ball against an Atlanta defense that’s been vulnerable, Kraft projects as a high-floor, high-target piece of that game plan. A line nearly 20 yards below his season average is the kind of gap that doesn’t usually last once the market catches up.

The Best Bets for Falcons-Packers on Thursday Night

Three different teams, three different reasons for confidence, but the same conclusion: the books haven’t fully adjusted to Penix’s return in Atlanta or to just how good Kraft has looked in his limited action for Green Bay. If you’re building a same-game parlay or just picking off individual props for player prop value, this trio gives you coverage on both sides of the ball.

• Kyle Pitts OVER 35.5 receiving yards (-114)
• Drake London OVER 62.5 receiving yards (-115)
• Tucker Kraft OVER 44.5 receiving yards (-115)

Check the latest NFL odds before kickoff, since lines can move throughout the week, but as of now this is one of the more attractive prop slates we’ve seen all season.