3 Best NFL Player Props to Back This Sunday: Derrick Henry, Ja’Marr Chase, Josh Jacobs Highlight Week 1’s Board

Week 1 of the NFL season is finally here, and if you’ve been waiting all offseason to fire up a player prop, Sunday, September 13 hands you a stacked slate to work with. Instead of locking into one game or one position, we went hunting across the entire board for the three plays that jumped out the most — a bruising workhorse back, a superstar wideout white-hot for the end zone, and a Green Bay grinder getting a plus matchup on the league’s biggest stage.

These three have almost nothing in common schematically, but they share the same thing that matters: real volume, real opportunity, and lines that look beatable before a single snap of the season has been played. Check your NFL betting guide for market movement, then let’s get into the picks.

Derrick Henry Just Doesn’t Slow Down

Derrick Henry enters his age-32 season looking like he skipped the memo about running backs declining late in their careers. He piled up 1,595 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns in 2025, finishing as the No. 2 rusher in the league behind only James Cook, and he did it averaging a ridiculous 5.20 yards per carry. That kind of per-touch efficiency at his workload is almost unheard of for a back his age, and it’s exactly why Baltimore keeps feeding him 15-plus carries a week regardless of opponent.

His Week 1 assignment is Buffalo, and books have his rushing yardage prop sitting right around 84.5. Henry has cleared that number regularly against a Bills defense that improved down the stretch last season but still ranked middle-of-the-pack against the run overall. He’s also priced in the -150 range to find the end zone on the anytime touchdown market, and that number undersells him — Henry has been a certified goal-line vulture for Baltimore, getting fed inside the 5-yard line more than almost any back in football. When the Ravens get into scoring range, the ball goes to Henry, full stop.

Ja’Marr Chase Is Still the Best Bet on the Board

Chase’s name popped up on the injury report this week with a knee issue, and that’s worth watching right up to kickoff — but every signal out of Cincinnati points toward him suiting up Sunday against Tampa Bay, and betting against a healthy Ja’Marr Chase has been a losing proposition for two straight seasons. He caught 125 passes for 1,412 yards in 2025 and commands close to a 29% target share in an offense that runs almost entirely through Joe Burrow’s arm. That’s not just volume — that’s a receiver who is the offense.

Where Chase separates from every other pass-catcher prop on the board is red-zone usage. He saw 22 red-zone targets last season, good for roughly 27% of Cincinnati’s team share in scoring position — a number that dwarfs most No. 1 receivers in the league. Books have him around -135 to score anytime (implied probability near 57%) with a receiving yards number in the mid-80s. Against a Tampa Bay secondary that will be seeing this offense’s tempo for the first time all year, that’s exactly the kind of mismatch that turns into an early six.

Josh Jacobs Gets a Plus Matchup Under the Lights

Green Bay closes out Week 1 with a Sunday Night Football trip to Minnesota, and Josh Jacobs is quietly one of the best value plays anywhere on the board. Minnesota’s run defense finished last season ranked 21st in the league, allowing 124.1 rushing yards per game — a far cry from the shutdown unit that gave Jacobs trouble in years past. Jacobs’ rushing yardage prop sits around 72.5, a number that looks very gettable behind a Packers offensive line that ran the ball at one of the higher rates in football last season.

Jacobs also carries strong touchdown equity here, priced around -185 to find paydirt (implied near 65%) in a Green Bay system that leans on him as the primary short-yardage and goal-line option. He’s a load to bring down at the second level, and Minnesota’s defensive front will be breaking in new pieces to start 2026. Under the lights, in a game both teams will want to establish tempo early, expect the Packers to keep handing this one to their bell-cow back.

Sunday’s Best Bets, Locked In

None of these three picks require you to squint at the matchup or talk yourself into a marginal shot — they’re the three strongest bets we could find scanning the entire Week 1 slate, spanning three different games and three different roles. Here’s the recap:

• Derrick Henry OVER 84.5 Rushing Yards (BAL vs. BUF)
• Ja’Marr Chase Anytime TD (-135) (CIN vs. TB)
• Josh Jacobs OVER 72.5 Rushing Yards (GB @ MIN, SNF)

Lock these in before kickoff and check your favorite sportsbook promo codes for the best number on each. Week 1 is here — time to get paid.