3 Best Bets We’re Backing for Lions vs Bills on TNF

Thursday Night Football is serving up a juicy one: the Detroit Lions head to Buffalo to take on the Bills at Highmark Stadium (8:15 PM ET), and both offenses looked like they meant business in Week 1. The Bills put up 36 in a shootout win over Houston, while the Lions needed overtime to slip past New Orleans 31-30. Translation: points should be on the menu again, and that means opportunity for the guys catching passes.

We dug through the Week 1 tape, the target shares, and the matchup numbers to land on three props we’re genuinely excited to back for this one. Two live in Buffalo’s suddenly crowded passing game, and one bets on a Lions receiver getting back on track against a defense that’s had its issues. Here’s the case for each.

Dalton Kincaid Is Suddenly Josh Allen’s Guy — Bet the Over Again

Dalton Kincaid didn’t just have a good Week 1, he had a career day. The Bills tight end caught 5 of 6 targets for 130 yards against Houston, setting a new single-game high and leading all Buffalo pass-catchers in yardage — ahead of big-money free agent addition DJ Moore. Kincaid saved his best for last too, hauling in catches of 40 and 35 yards in the fourth quarter when the Bills needed answers in a shootout.

What makes this more than a one-week fluke is the offensive shift behind it. New OC Joe Brady has installed a scheme that leans heavily on matchup-based targeting, and Kincaid’s blend of size and route-running versatility made him the earliest beneficiary. He tied Khalil Shakir for the team’s second-most targets in the opener, trailing only Moore’s eight, and he’s playing through a healthy knee for the first time in a while after grinding through the injury last season.

Our model likes Dalton Kincaid to clear 49.5 receiving yards at roughly 60% — well ahead of what the market’s pricing in at around -108. Against a Lions defense that’s going to be occupied trying to slow down Josh Allen’s legs and Moore on the outside, Kincaid’s the kind of matchup weapon who can quietly rack up chunks of yardage working the middle of the field.

Khalil Shakir’s Volume Is Locked In — Take the Over on Receptions

Don’t sleep on the security blanket just because the shiny new toys got more publicity. Khalil Shakir caught 4 of 6 targets for 50 yards in Week 1, and while the box score doesn’t scream breakout, the underlying role tells a different story. Shakir has posted back-to-back seasons of 70-plus catches, averaging 74 receptions on roughly 97.5 targets a year with four touchdowns in each of the last two campaigns. He’s proven, reliable, and Josh Allen trusts him in the short-to-intermediate game no matter who else is on the field.

The red zone role is what pushes this from “solid floor” to “smash spot.” Shakir picked up three red zone targets in the opener, a signal that offensive coordinator Joe Brady wants to keep using him as a chain-mover and scoring-area option even with Moore and Kincaid soaking up headlines. With Buffalo again expected to move the ball at a high tempo against a Lions defense that had its own communication issues in Week 1, expect Shakir to see another 5-plus targets on Thursday.

At -136, the market’s pricing Khalil Shakir’s reception total tight, but volume bets like this are exactly the kind of prop that hits more often than the number suggests when a player’s role is this stable — the kind of NFL betting guide staple that rewards paying attention to snap counts over box scores. We’re comfortable laying the price for the over on 4.5 catches.

Jameson Williams Bounces Back With a Touchdown

Jameson Williams had a quiet Week 1 by his standards — just 4 catches on 9 targets for 45 yards in the overtime win over New Orleans, with nearly half his yardage coming on a single 22-yard grab. But context matters here. Williams is coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in which he averaged 17.2 yards per catch, and quarterback Jared Goff simply wasn’t finding him consistently in the opener. That kind of target volume — nine looks — doesn’t disappear, and neither does the big-play role Detroit has built around him.

The matchup sets up nicely for a correction. Buffalo’s secondary has had its issues creating consistent pressure and coverage discipline, especially against vertical route-runners who can win over the top, and Williams remains one of the fastest players in the league at that position. Detroit’s coaching staff has made it clear it wants to get him more involved after the Week 1 disconnect, and a national TV spotlight on Thursday night is as good a stage as any for that adjustment to show up.

At around +210, Jameson Williams to score anytime is priced as exactly what it is: a boom-or-bust, field-stretching threat who’s overdue. Given the target share, the touchdown opportunity in a game two potent offenses are expected to trade points in, and Detroit’s stated intent to get him going again, this is a price worth taking a shot on.

Our Three Best Bets for Lions-Bills on Thursday Night

Two shootouts to open the season, two offenses that look ready to keep the scoreboard moving, and three props we like across both sides of the ball. Here’s how we’re stacking our card for Thursday Night Football.

• Dalton Kincaid OVER 49.5 receiving yards (-108)
• Khalil Shakir OVER 4.5 receptions (-136)
• Jameson Williams ANYTIME TD (+210)

If both of these offenses play anything like they did in Week 1, there should be plenty of production to go around — and these three feel like the sharpest ways to cash in on it.