Are you fired up for some NFL football once again? As usual, our team will do a breakdown of each division and give out a best bet. Will Tampa Bay win the NFC South once again in 2024, or is this finally Atlanta's year?
This division should once again be wide open in 2024 and we're here for it! Our betting guide gives you the division odds, win totals, and our top pick! Let's dig into it!
Atlanta Falcons: NFC South Title (-115) / 9.5 Season Wins
The Falcons had arguably the most talented roster in the division last season, but inconsistent play at the QB position from Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke ruined any chances of a playoff berth. Management responded by firing Arthur Smith and bringing in veteran head coach Raheem Morris. The team also made a big splash in free agency by signing Kirk Cousins.
Cousins will have a plethora of weapons to throw to, mainly in the form of Drake London and Kyle Pitts. Darnell Mooney and Rondale Moore were also nice additions at the wideout position. It'll be interesting to see how new OC Zac Robinson gets enough touches for London, Pitts, and Bijan Robinson.
Atlanta's defense should once again be a strong suit, as they ranked an impressive 7th in yards per play allowed a season ago. Though the Falcons don't really have any big-name players on D, these guys play well together as a unit. The team spent 5 draft picks on defensive players to add some nice depth.
I came close to betting Atlanta to win this division, but there isn't enough value left in the number. It opened at +150 but is now around -115 or so. I'm not willing to lay juice with a team that's breaking in a new head coach, new OC, and new QB. We'll pass on the Dirty Birds!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: NFC South Title (+300) / 7.5 Season Wins
The Bucs took home the division crown a year ago, despite plenty of glaring weaknesses. However, in the NFC South, teams can get away with those weaknesses and still find plenty of success. Baker Mayfield can be up-and-down at times, but the former Heisman Trophy winner loves to compete.
Mayfield will have his two favorite targets back this season in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Both of these guys have the ability to dominate opposing cornerbacks when they get in a good groove. The running game has got to get better, and former Oregon speedster Bucky Irving could provide a nice spark on 3rd down.
Tampa Bay did a remarkable job of stopping the run in 2023, and that should once again be a strength this year. My main concern with this team is the secondary, as the Bucs ranked just 25th in yards per pass allowed last season. I was shocked that they only used one draft pick on a defensive back.
All in all, though, I'm playing the Bucs to win the division at the juicy price of +300. Atlanta has more overall talent, but Tampa Bay has more stability returning. Fire the cannons for a half a unit!
New Orleans Saints: NFC South Title (+340) / 7.5 Season Wins
The Saints were incredibly frustrating to watch last season. They just missed the playoffs due to the tiebreaker rules, but still ended up with a respectable 9-8 record. I'm not trying to sound mean, but head coach Dennis Allen appears to be in over his head.
Derek Carr is starting to show signs of aging, and most of his stats were padded with a bunch of dink and dunk throws to his tight end and running backs. Superstar RB Alvin Kamara isn't getting any younger either, even though he remains dynamic with the ball in his hands. I was a little shocked that New Orleans didn't bring in a free agent wideout to help Chris Olave carry the load at receiver.
The Saints secondary is the best part of their defense. Veterans like Tyrann Mathieu and Marshon Lattimore will be great mentors for second round draft pick Kool-Aid McKinstry. However, if this squad doesn't stop the run any better this year, there could be a lot of sad days in the Big Easy.
Carolina Panthers: NFC South Title (+1100) / 5.5 Season Wins
Oddsmakers are expecting another rebuilding year in Charlotte and it's hard to disagree with them. The Panthers only won 2 games last season and they may not win many more than that in 2024. Carolina will have their 6th head coach in 6 years this season, which obviously doesn't do much to build team unity.
All of that said, new head coach Dave Canales was the guy who helped Geno Smith revitalize his career a few years ago. We'll see if he can do the same for young QB Bryce Young, who threw 10 interceptions during his rookie campaign. The good news is that Xavier Legette and Diontae Johnson should give Young some more open targets down the field.
As bad as Carolina is, their defense has been pretty stout. The Panthers were very good against the pass and slightly above average against the run in 2023. Jadeveon Clowney and A'Shawn Robinson were brought in to help make the pass rush even more fierce.
I don't have a play on Carolina in the futures market. However, with a potentially bad offense and a solid defense, I'll be playing the Under in a lot of the Panthers' games in 2024.
