Can you feel it? There is a palpable sense of excitement in the NFL world now that training camps have started. We are that much closer to kicking off the 2024 season, a year that should say a lot about the future of the league.
The Kansas City Chiefs are the reigning, defending two-time champs, and they are looking to complete the first three-peat in league history. Teams around the league are doing anything possible to try and slow them down, especially teams in the AFC.
Does any team in the AFC South have what it takes to humble the champs? We’ll see in a few short months. For now, let’s take a look at what the AFC South has to offer heading into 2024, looking into each team’s roster and over/under win totals for the year.
Tennessee Titans (Current Win Total Over/Under: 6.5)
The Tennessee Titans have the lowest projected win total of any team in the AFC South. They finished the 2023 season with a 6-11 season, and with a win total of 6.5, sportsbooks don’t think they’ve gotten much better during the offseason.
After all, Derrick Henry is now off the roster, someone that the Titans have grown to heavily rely on over the past several seasons. Their offense is going to look a lot differently this year, especially with Will Levis as the expected starter for most, if not all of the season.
Conventional wisdom might indicate that the Titans are in for a disastrous season, especially given the projected strength of their division rivals, but we like their odds of winning at least seven games.
There is a general sense of optimism surrounding Levis in this offense, and with an easy schedule down the stretch, we wouldn’t be surprised if the Titans win eight games. We certainly aren’t predicting them to contend for the division title, but they could surprise us with more wins than anticipated.
Jacksonville Jaguars (Current Team Win Total Over/Under: 8.5)
We’re just going to say it right now- the last three teams in the AFC South could all win at least nine games this year. It might seem crazy to put that out there, but with the Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Houston Texans all hitting that mark last season, we’re pretty confident it could happen again.
For the Jaguars, specifically, we firmly believe that Trevor Lawrence is due for a breakout season. He was one of the most highly touted quarterbacks in recent history, but he hasn’t necessarily had a season that has showcased the best of his abilities.
Lawrence just got signed to a massive deal, indicating the Jaguars believe that he’s their future and that he can lead them to great heights for the foreseeable future. Will he capitalize on all of this hype? We think he will, which, again, is why we’re taking the over on them to win at least nine games.
Indianapolis Colts (Current Team Win Total Over/Under: 8.5)
It was a bit surprising to us to see Caesar’s give the Colts plus odds of achieving nine wins this year. The Colts made that happen without Anthony Richardson for much of the season, as he had problems with concussions, and ended up having season-ending shoulder surgery.
Richardson is apparently recovering well from this injury, which is a good sign for the Colts heading into the 2024 campaign. He showed a lot of promise in his first few games as a rookie, demonstrating skill on the ground, and of course, through the air.
If he can support the Colts’ pass-catchers for a full season, there is no reason to believe they can’t win at least nine games, if not 10+. This team has a lot going for them on both sides of the ball, and with a healthy Richardson, their ceiling could be nearly limitless. The AFC is going to be a fun race all year, and the Colts could certainly find themselves in a prime position deep in the playoffs.
Houston Texans (Current Team Win Total Over/Under: 9.5)
The Texans were in a rough spot, quarterback-wise, when Deshaun Watson left the team. He was an MVP-caliber player and without him, it seemed like they were doomed for the foreseeable future. Prior to 2023, the Texans missed the playoffs for three straight years. However, when the team drafted C.J. Stroud, everything changed. Stroud took this team from the ground up, transforming them from a three-win team in 2022 to a ten-win team in 2023, winning the division and bringing them to the playoffs.
Stroud is now the face of the team and is fresh off winning the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. The Texans have made a lot of moves throughout the offseason to improve their offense, and their defense continues to get stronger as well. Will Anderson was slightly overshadowed by Stroud, but he’s the reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year.
With superstars on both sides of the ball, we expect another solid season out of the Texans. We wouldn’t be surprised if they won at least 12 games this year despite a tough schedule. With that in mind, we’re taking the over on their season win total, our fourth such selection from this difficult AFC South division.
