We’ve reached the halfway point in the 2024 NFL season and we’re after it again with a couple of picks on the Sunday slate. Just two teams on bye this week (Pittsburgh, San Francisco) so we’ll have a pretty packed slate. I’m seeing some numbers I just can’t get behind, so let’s jump right in
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
All I’d like to know here is who was brave enough to bet the Panthers at +7.5? Derek Carr is set to return for the 2-6 Saints, needing to get back in the win column as they risk burying themselves in the standings. It’ll be Bryce Young again for the Panthers as Andy Dalton is still sidelined with his thumb injury.
This line opened at -7 with the QB consideration and while the market flirted with -6.5 very briefly, there was consistent action on the Panthers at +7.5. This is leaving us with a juiced -7 at most places but you can still find a few -7 -110’s across the market.
Bryce Young isn’t good at football. The experiment looks like it’s over in Carolina and Young is just being trotted out there until they can find their next QB of the future. Looking past Bryce Young, there’s a dearth of talent on this Carolina roster. The defense is a funnel that can’t really stop the pass or the run. The wide receiver group just got even thinner as Diontae Johnson was traded to Baltimore. You start to run into an issue where you just can’t make this number big enough.
Even if we go by market ratings, I still think New Orleans is undervalued here, but on top of that, Young looks inept at the helm of the Panthers offense and is sometimes unable to even score in garbage time. The Saints are desperate to recreate the magic of their offense in the first two weeks of the season and Carolina is the perfect matchup to get right with.
Best Bet: Saints -7.5 (-104)
There might be some difficulty at the start as Derek Carr reacclimated himself to an offense still missing Rasheed Shaheed.
I can’t say the Saints will be awe inspiring once Derek Carr is back on the field, but anything will be better than the Spencer Rattler/ Jared Haener combination that we’ve seen over the past few weeks.
I think the Saints will cover this number easily and I’d consider playing some alt lines as well (-10.5, -13.5)
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
Here’s another huge leverage spot on the schedule in a NFC West matchup between the Rams and Seahawks. At this point in the season, we’re looking at two teams trending in opposite directions.
The Rams are getting healthier after getting both Cooper Kupp and Paka Nacua on the field again. Despite some trade chatter around Kupp and QB Matthew Stafford it seems like Sean McVay and company are going to keep the gang together for another playoff push.
On the other hand, Seattle has dropped four of their last five and star WR DK Metcalf is nursing a knee injury. Even if he’s able to go, it won’t be at 100%.
Seattle HC Mike Macdonald received a lot of praise as the Baltimore DC but hasn’t been able to replicate the success in Seattle. I’m not ready to give up on this group, but it certainly feels like they should be downgraded a little more here.
Best Bet: Rams -1.5
With the Rams sitting at PK or -1 across the market, I’d be comfortable laying that. Taking a quick look at the “to make playoffs market” the Rams are at about 3/1 while Seattle is about +360.
Whoever you like in this matchup the result is going to drastically change that pricing, so I’d consider taking a stab at the Rams.
This is shaping up to be a big Kyren Williams game as I’m sure McVay will look to dominate ball control in this one and protect his defense.
