We’ve arrived at Week 6 in the NFL season as injuries are starting to pile up around the league. It’ll certainly have an effect on the matchups we’re looking at for our picks this week as we look to navigate a tricky slate.
The Chiefs, Rams, Dolphins, and Vikings find themselves on bye this week. Interestingly, the Vikings elected to take their bye after the London game, while the Jets did not, instead hosting the Bills in primetime on Monday.
Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles
The Browns season is quickly becoming a dumpster fire with Deshaun Watson at the helm and I’m not sure what can possibly save it. Last week we attempted to buy low on this team, getting some offensive line reinforcements, as well as Deshaun looking slightly better in Week 4. Instead, the Browns somehow got worse.
Watson looks unplayable, the offensive line has dropped from top ten preseason to about bottom five so far. The players look defeated, including Amari Cooper, the Browns top receiver. The defense, which was supposed to be the hallmark of this team has been poor and is now without top CB Denzel Ward.
Myles Garret still has game wrecking ability but can’t be responsible for the entire defense on every single play. The Browns coverage units aren’t fooling anybody and the offense has kept them on the field for far longer than Jim Schwartz or Kevin Stefanski would like. Deshaun Watson’s albatross contract is probably the only thing keeping him on the field at this point and it’s hard to see any improvement.
In a year of extreme parity in the NFL, I’ve been hesitant to bet big favorites like the Eagles in this spot at -9. That being said, it feels like the perfect storm for us to get a sizeable favorite to cover.
The bye week came at the right time for the Eagles as they’ll have LT Lane Johnson and WRs AJ Brown and Devonta Smith all healthy for the first time since Week 1. We saw Hurts really struggle to move the ball without his star receivers in Week 4 against the Bucs and while Dallas Goedert is still a good option at TE, the WR core wasn’t up to par for this offense.
Best Bet: Eagles -9.5
Nick Sirianni has also taken a lot of heat in the previous two weeks about some of his in-game decision making regarding play call and when to go for it vs. kick on fourth down. While I actually agree with the criticism of Sirianni, I think the Eagles use this as a get right game at home and flex their offensive prowess against a Browns team that looks ready to call it a lost season.
I expect the Eagles to throw the ball quite a bit, to get their receivers back in the swing of things and I imagine Sirianni will look to run up the score in an attempt to quiet some of his doubters.
My biggest concern with the Eagles covering a big number here is the potential for the Browns to pull Watson and throw Jameis Winston in the game. Stefanski has remained committed to Watson for the time being but keep an eye out for Jameis’ name in the news cycle.
Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers
The Cardinals head into Green Bay after a surprising upset of the 49ers last week, where the Cardinals won the second half 14-0 to defeat San Francisco 24-23. It was certainly a weird outcome that involved a goal line fumble, an injured kicker, and the second game this season that San Francisco has capitulated in the final minutes of the game.
While that win does feel like it keeps Arizona’s playoff hopes alive, I’m not ready to upgrade them based on that performance. The Niners were dominant in the first half and the Cardinals only real offense was a fifty-yard scramble by Kyler Murray on the games’ first drive.
If you’re sensing a theme, I’m going with another “get right” spot with the Packers this week. The Packers were decent in their 24-19 win against the Rams, but I would’ve expected that Jordan Love and company would have produced more offense against a poor Rams secondary.
Love has struggled a bit since coming back from his knee injury (perhaps he was rushed back?), but I think the Arizona defense provides another opportunity for this offense to come together.
I’m not sure if the Packers will get WR Christian Watson back for this one, but Romeo Doubs will be back from his one game suspension. Luke Musgrave was downgraded this week and could be headed for IR, however, we’ve seen a huge emergence from Tucker Kraft this season, who will play Sunday.
Best Bet: Packers -5.5
This Cardinals offense has the personnel to be sneaky at certain times, but it’s looked pretty flat since the opening two weeks.
With the defense unable to generate any pressure, Jordan Love should have a field day against this secondary with another week to get healthier.
