It’s Week 4 of the NFL season with plenty of opportunity on the Sunday slate. Injuries are starting to pile up for some teams as we are into our final week without a team on bye.
Let’s take a look down the board and try to identify some value this weekend. Best of luck with all of your plays! Enjoy the action!
Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers
Oh boy, Cincinnati. Joe Burrow and company are looking at an 0-3 start after their Monday night defeat at home against the Commanders. The Bengals finally got Tee Higgins back for an offense that hasn’t looked quite in sync so far in 2024.
It looked a lot better with Higgins in the lineup, but it was the defense that looked hapless against the Commanders. Jaden Daniels is proving to be a dynamic draft choice, but the Bengals can’t expect to be this bad against the run all season.
Looking over at the Panthers, they finally got a jolt with Andy Dalton taking the helm under center and leading the Panthers to a resounding victory over the Raiders. It’s a fairly common occurrence in the NFL that a team rallies behind a QB change, especially in the case of the Panthers where Bryce Young was losing the locker room. While I’m surprised Dave Canales made this move just two games into the season, I’m not surprised at the Panthers' exceptional effort and offensive output in Week 3.
I do, however, think we’ve reached a low point for the Bengals. They should be able to bounce back from here and I expect the offense will continue to succeed against a suspect Carolina defense. Outside of Jaycee Horn, the pass defense is awful, and they really don’t get much pressure on the QB.
Joe Burrow should have all the time he needs, and I think Tee Higgins or Andrei Iovasias will have a big game (assuming Horn shadows Chase.) This Bengals line is sitting at about -4.5 which feels low, but what I’m more interested in is the total.
Best Bet: OVER 47
The total originally re-opened at 46.5 Monday night, before shooting all the way to 48/48.5. Since then, we’ve seen consistent buyback on the number bringing it down to the current figure at 47.
I’m extremely surprised by this number as I’m not sure what bettors are expecting that is pushing the figure down. If Carolina is to surprise the Bengals, it’ll be because they take advantage of the Bengals abysmal defense.
Despite this, I can’t imagine anyone is expecting the Carolina defense to play a big role in this game. I’m happy to take the over here at 47.
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Here’s an interesting one where the line has bounced back and forth between +2.5 and +1.5 for the Saints. We haven’t seen any +3’s but I’m certain the market would take that in a heartbeat and it’s seemingly ok betting +2.5 as well.
These are two teams that have been particularly difficult to rate so far through three weeks. The Falcons are coming off two narrow losses to elite competition in the Chiefs and Eagles. On the other hand, the Saints were the best team in football through two weeks before a strange 15-12 home loss to the Eagles in Week 3. Now the Saints head into Atlanta to take on the Falcons with public perception quickly shifting on them.
I think their offensive output in the first two weeks was unsustainable, but they should have been able to put up a better performance against an Eagles team with a bunch of injuries and without the pass rush of old.
I’m more concerned with the Falcons offense which was supposed to take a massive step forward with Kirk Cousins at the helm. Cousins has looked better each week, but his mobility is still bad, and the Falcons offense doesn’t look to be operating smoothly.
Peyton Manning made a good point during the Manningcast on MNF in Week 2, where the 2-minute drill was where the offense looked most comfortable because they were playing with pace and running day one install plays. I’d expect the Falcons offense to look better over time but so far, we are not seeing the big jump in production we were promised with the Kirk Cousins signing.
Best Bet: Saints +2.5
I’m looking to back Derek Carr and the Saints in this one as we’ve already identified an offensive philosophy shift with the signing of OC Klint Kubiak. The Saints offense desperately needed modernization and is capped by the limited ability of Derek Carr.
That being said, they do have a better than average skill group with Kamara, Olave, and Shaheed. Derek Carr plays well when he has time in the pocket and the Falcons have not been able to generate any pressure from their pass rush so far in 2024. I’d expect Bijan Robinson to have a big effect on this game, but the limited big play ability of the Falcons offense in its current form shouldn’t be too difficult for the Saints to figure out.
I see this one as a 50/50 game where you’re catching +2.5 points with the Saints. If this were on a neutral site, I’d have the Saints favored by a point or so.
