We’ve crossed over the halfway point in the 2024 NFL season and are now at Week 10. Four teams are on bye this week (Browns, Packers, Raiders, Seahawks), giving us a more balanced Sunday slate.
The Giants and Panthers will kick off at 9:30 EST as the NFL continues its overseas showcases, this time in Munich. We’ll be looking at a couple underdogs on the slate as there are some prices that just seem like they’ve gone too far.
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs:
Hold your nose folks, we’re about to bet against Patrick Mahomes. The Broncos are on the road in this matchup after taking a beating at the hands of Baltimore in Week 9. It’s a bit of a difficult spot for the Broncos on the second leg of two straight road games. Despite allowing 41 points to Baltimore, I’m not ready to give a massive downgrade to the Broncos defense.
We thought the defense might have been a little overrated going into last week, given the poor competition that Denver has faced. However, I don’t think Baltimore’s performance is an indictment of the Broncos, it’s more proof that Baltimore is one of, if not the best, offense in the league. Patrick Mahomes and company are not operating at the same level as Baltimore and will be more susceptible to the pressure that the Broncos' pass rush has been able to generate.
This is quietly a weird spot for the Chiefs as well. It’s a little unusual to see them playing a home game in the 1pm time slot as it’s the first of the year for them, coming off a short week after beating the Bucs on Monday Night Football. The under has consistently taken action in this one, opening 43/42 and being bet down to a market average of 41.5. This got as low as 40.5 before setting back at the 41.5 level.
Best Bet: Broncos +8
With the total this low, I think the Broncos are catching a few too many points. This was available at 9.5 briefly but I still think there’s value in the 8/8.5 range.
I don’t think that the Broncos are going to be the team that ruins the Chiefs' undefeated season, but I do think they’ll keep it competitive enough to keep this within a touchdown.
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers
Another ugly one, but into the afternoon slate we go. The 2024 Chargers have surprised me coming into Week 10 at 5-3, but I’m not sold on this team. In fairness, the offense has finally gotten fully healthy with their tackles both returning and Justin Herbert recovering from an ankle injury.
WR Quentin Johnston also returned to the lineup last week. However, there’s some serious injury concern on the Chargers defense. It looks like Joey Bosa and Denzel Perryman will go after posting limited participation in Thursday’s practice. However, Khalil Mack and Krisitan Fulton have not practiced yet this week.
For the Titans, L’Jarius Sneed was ruled out, however, they’ll get Tyjae Spears back and I do expect Tony Pollard to play. The Titans officially announced that Will Levis will start on Sunday.
We did give them a slight upgrade at first going from Levis to Rudolph, as Rudolph doesn’t have the same propensity for mind-boggling turnovers. That being said, Levis is the more dynamic player and hopefully some time on the sideline nursing his AC joint injury will lead to some better decision making from the young QB.
Bet: Titans +7.5 -110
Similar to the previous game, with a total sitting at just 38.5, I’m not sure how the Chargers can be -7.5-point favorites. I like the Titans and the over in this spot, as I think both offenses will be able to move the ball on the opposing defense with the relative health advantages.
The Titans are catching too many points here against a Chargers team that isn’t built to sustain a shootout.
