Welcome back to our favorite time of year! We’re excited to bring back our best bets for the NFL season as Week 1 kicks off this weekend. Let’s jump right into two picks I like for this weekend’s slate.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
For our first game, we’ll look at this AFC South matchup between two second-year quarterbacks with sky-high expectations in 2024. The Texans find themselves as -2.5/-3-point favorites across the board with a total between 48.5 and 49. Week 1 is historically a place where we look for unders in divisional games, due to the familiarity of the two teams. However, in this matchup, I’ll be playing the team total OVER 23.5 (-105) for Indy.
The Colts HC Shane Steichen deserves plenty of praise for the job he did in 2023 in his first year as head coach. Despite losing his star QB in Week 5, Steichen coached a Gardner Minshew-led team to a 9-8 record, just missing the playoffs. RB Jonathan Taylor sat out the first four games of the season due to a contract dispute before eventually signing and starting Week 5.
Part of the reason I’m backing the Colts' offense here is that I think the books are undervaluing its potential. We really didn’t see Steichen’s offense as intended with both Richardson and Taylor in the lineup for more than a few series during Week 5 of 2023. The Colts also added Adonai Mitchell in the draft to play alongside Michael Pittman and Josh Downs, which should bring improvement to an otherwise subpar wide receiver group in Indy.
Best Bet:Colts Team Total OVER 23.5 (-105)
While I do expect the Texans defense to be decent in 2024, overall, their run defense looks vulnerable against this Colts team. The Texans overhauled their defense in the offseason bringing in plenty of pass rush talent in Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry to go alongside Will Anderson and Mario Edwards.
They also brought in LB Azeez Al-Shaair, who is the only player I have with a positive grade for run stop. Steichen has a dynamic player in Anthony Richardson, and I expect a heavy run attack with both him and Johnathan Taylor in this matchup.
The Colts could very well have issues of their own, which is keeping me off the side in this one. That being said, I don’t like this matchup for the Texans' defense and am backing the Colts.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Buffalo Bills
The new look Bills host the Cardinals as 6.5-point favorites Sunday afternoon in Buffalo. The Bills had an active offseason, trading away WR Stefon Diggs and watching Gabe Davis head to Jacksonville.
The 2024 Bills offense will rely on Khalil Shakir and rookie Keon Coleman to lead the WR corps. Despite the drop off in name recognition, I’m not overly concerned with the Bills offense taking a step back. The Bills want to run the ball out of twelve personnel and utilize Josh Allen’s legs/scramble ability as best they can.
They’ll be forced to do so with the current roster construction, but I do think this will take a couple games to get right. The Bills have grown into a playoff team tendency where they don't really turn it on or open the playbook until the middle part of their schedule.
Best Bet: Cardinals +6.5 (-110)
Opposite them will be the Cardinals who used the #2 overall pick to pair Marvin Harrison Jr. with Kyler Murray. I’m very intrigued by the Cardinals offense this year as Kyler Murray still has top 15 QB upside when he’s healthy.
The Cardinals built the offensive line to be able to run the ball so expect to see a heavy dose of James Conner in this one. The Bills roster also has a lot of turnover on the defensive side and missing Matt Milano in this contest isn’t promising.
I think even if the Bills get off to a good start on offense, this Cardinals team will continue to be competitive and keep this game close. I’m betting on a high upside offense against a team that despite its talent, certainly has some work to do before they are in mid-season form.
