Week 8 is here as we’re quickly approaching the halfway point of the 2024 NFL season. There are no teams on bye in Week 8, so we have a jam-packed schedule on Sunday. With a bunch of large favorites on the board this week, we’ll look to take a couple more interesting angles in this week’s article
Green Bay Packers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence and company return stateside after a 1-1 trip to England puts them at 2-4 on the season. They’ll host Jordan Love and the Packers coming off a last-second win against the Texans. I think there are a couple of different ways to approach this game from a betting perspective, both in the single game and in the futures market.
Firstly, let’s talk about this Packers defense. Are they good? They are the 12th-ranked defense in the league according to DVOA but I’m not sure if this level is sustainable for the unit. They are generating turnovers which has put them in positive game states throughout the season. That being said, they gave up 30+ to the Eagles and Vikings who are probably the only two offenses they’ve faced this season who were both good and healthy.
Last week was a strong performance against what should be a good Texans offense, but I think that performance was more telling of the poor play call and apparently the reliance on Nico Collins to make that offense hum. The Jaguars offense could finally be coming together with Tank Bigsby now firmly taking the lead back role, TE Evan Engram returning to the lineup, and rookie WR Brian Thomas getting more targets.
They looked great against a decent Patriots defense and could continue the success at home this week. We’ve seen some love for the Jaguars in the market this week after the opening line of +4.5 got bet down to +3.5 or +4. The under also took some action, which I can’t say I agree with.
Best Bet: Jaguars (First Half) +2.5
Packers games have been difficult to bet pregame because of the offenses’ volatility. Jordan Love and the wide receiver core have top five upside but often make critical mistakes early in games, forcing them to come from behind.
Love continues to shine in the second half of games despite matchups against poor passing defenses, such as the Jags this week. I’m going to be betting the Jaguars 1H at +2.5 -105. There were some 3’s early in the market which are now gone.
I wouldn’t mind waiting until Sunday to play this, just in case any Packers money comes in. I don’t see the Jags' price falling further.
Futures Play: Jaguars +2500 to Win AFC South
Looking ahead into the futures market is another angle if you are a believer in Jacksonville in this spot. For them to remain competitive in the division, this is a must-win game. The Texans are an astounding -600 to win the division with a home matchup against the Colts on Sunday.
As we mentioned before, whether it’s the injuries, the play call, or a sophomore slump for CJ Stroud, this Texans offense has not looked right. I can’t get around to how they should have such a massive stronghold over the division at this point in the season. The Jaguars are 25/1 to win the division at this point and that’s a number that simply won’t be around should the Jags win this game.
From weeks 14-17, the Texans go @JAX, vs. MIA, @Chiefs, and then host the Ravens. That four-game stretch could have massive implications on their outcome in the division, so I don’t mind taking a stab at a huge price here on Jacksonville.
Arizona Cardinals @ Miami Dolphins
The fun can resume in Miami. Tua Tagovailoa is set to return from yet another gut-wrenching concussion and will start on Sunday against Arizona. Despite having some of the best skill players in the league, Miami couldn’t get any semblance of their offense with the combination of Skylar Thompson, Tim Boyle, and Tyler Huntley.
Tua doesn’t have the highest ceiling in the league, but this is certainly a massive upgrade and shows how important he is to this team’s success. The “good” news here is that we generally don’t see a production dip from players returning from concussion protocol. Once they’ve cleared, they should be considered at full strength.
Whether Tua should suit up in general is a debate for a later time, but as long as he’s in Miami’s offense will perform. On top of this, Miami gets a layup matchup against Arizona, whose defense is a pass funnel. They don’t generate any pressure on the QB and just lost LB Dennis Gardeck, who’s quietly been very good, for the season. Their defensive front is so banged up, I think Miami can pick their poison in terms of how they want to attack them.
Arizona played on Monday night, giving them a one-day rest disadvantage. Add in west to east coast travel and playing in the 1pm slot is not a recipe for success for this Cardinals team. Generally speaking, I think the markets do a decent job of pricing that into the line, but I don’t think it’s fully accounted for in this game.
Best Bet: Dolphins -4 (ESPN BET)
I’d have Miami at above -5 given how horrible the Cardinals defense is and the upgrade that the Miami offense will have. It’s like a “get-right” spot for Miami, finding an especially soft defense in a precarious travel situation.
I have a feeling Mike McDaniel won’t be afraid to run up the score at home and despite some talent on the Arizona side of the ball, they simply don’t have the firepower to contend with Miami. I’d lay -4 (-110) comfortably.
There are -105s and a -3.5 (-120) out there in the market. I also don’t foresee any support for Arizona coming through late, so this is likely the best line you’ll get if not the closing line for Miami.
