We’re onto Week 11 in the 2024 NFL season with two more picks today on the Sunday slate. The Giants, Cardinals, Bucs, and Panthers are on bye this week giving us a manageable slate. I wish the NFL would do a better job of balancing the 1 pm vs. 4 pm start times as we’ll have eight games in the early window and just three at 4 pm.
Cleveland Browns vs. New Orleans Saints
The Cleveland Browns head into New Orleans off of their bye week to take on the Saints coming off a 20-17 victory against the Falcons. The Saints got a much-needed victory against the Falcons after losing at Carolina in Week 9 in Derek Carr’s return from injury.
Despite the victory last week, I wasn’t particularly impressed with the Saints' performance. They were fortunate to come away with a victory as Falcons K Younghoe Koo missed three field goals including a potential game-tying one with 6 minutes to go in the fourth quarter. The ensuing drives for the Falcons ended with a Kirk Cousins interception and a failed 90-second drill from their own 14.
The same thing has remained true throughout Derek Carr’s career and that is his poor performance when pressured. The Falcons' pass rush leaves a lot to be desired and didn’t record any sacks on a mostly immobile Carr. The Browns' defense will be another story.
We know they haven’t performed up to expectations in 2024 and they just traded Za’Darius Smith, however, Myles Garrett still leads an effective pass rush. The Saints placed WR Chris Olave on IR last week and without him, their offense is fairly inept. I don’t think the Saints can rely on bombs to MVS to keep this offense moving. This is also a historically weak spot for teams in the second game after promoting a new HC.
Best Bet: Browns Moneyline
We know Jameis Winston can be a frustrating watch at times, but his potential to have a huge game leads me to believe that the Browns are the right side in this one. The market has pushed towards them all week, but you can still find some Browns +1 and Browns PK out there.
I think we’ll continue to see Browns' support up until kickoff. The Browns may have played themselves out of playoff contention, however, it’s a prime opportunity for Winston to have a big game against a weak Saints secondary.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Tennessee Titans
Hold your nose folks, Will Levis takes the field this Sunday at home against Minnesota. Levis actually had a decent passing game against the Chargers in Week 10 but took 7 sacks, pretty much handicapping this offense. On the other side, the Vikings, squeaked by the Mac Jones-led Jaguars in a game where Sam Darnold threw three interceptions.
The Vikings' offense hasn’t looked nearly as good as they did in the first few weeks as either Sam Darnold is showing some regression, or the league is figuring out Kevin O’Connell’s attack. I’m going to chalk this one up to an outlier outcome as I don’t expect such a dud performance from Darnold to occur this week.
Darnold also appeared to injure his hand during the game which might have affected his performance. He was listed as a full participant in practice on Thursday so there doesn’t seem to be much concern around it. The Titans have a sneaky good defense but to me, this total has just gone too far. After opening at 41.5 the total has been bet down all the way to 39.5.
Best Bet: Vikings/Titans OVER 39.5 -110 **0.5u
Despite how good the Vikings defense has played in 2024; I don’t think this move was justified. Will Levis is (maybe) improving under center and the Titans have finally seemed to integrate all their offensive weapons (Ridley, Pollard, Spears).
There’s been some two-way action on the side in this one as the Titans have taken some money at +6.5 and +6, but the -5.5’s were quickly scooped up by Vikings backers. I tend to think the Vikings cover this number and are going to need to put up some points.
39.5 is too low for a Titans offense that I think has a higher floor than implied given the improvements they’ve shown since Levis was re-entered into the lineup.
