On to Week 3 in the NFL season as we look to build on our 2-2 record so far in article picks. The NFL schedulers did a much better job this week providing a balanced slate with seven games in the 1 pm window and five at 4 pm.
We’ll look to highlight a couple of spots where I disagree with the current line. Best of luck with all of your wagers this week, folks!
Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings
CJ Stroud and the Texans head into Minnesota to take on the Vikings and Sam Darnold, who’s experiencing a sort of career renaissance under Kevin O’Connell. The line is currently sitting at Texans -2, and we’ve seen some back-and-forth action this week. Through two weeks of the season, it’s important not to overreact to success without material change.
We had a lookahead line of Texans -3.5 in this spot and the re-open was -3. The market dipped as low as -1.5 for the Texans before some buyback getting the line to -2/-2.5. Minnesota’s defense is #2 in defensive DVOA after a spectacular Week 2 performance against the San Francisco 49ers. The Vikings also beat the Niners in this spot last year, while SF was down a few skill players.
While I’m not surprised to see Sam Darnold playing at a higher level in Kevin O’Connell’s system, I think the love has gone a little too far. This Houston defense is ranked 4th in defensive DVOA, with their offense behind at 16th. They didn’t play their best on SNF against the Bears and I think this performance is having too much impact on the line.
Houston was heavily penalized in that game, took some untimely sacks, and had a goal-line fumble that limited the team to 19 points. Joe Mixon is likely out this Sunday but I don’t rate him highly and running backs don’t have much impact on the point spread.
Bet: Houston Texans -2.5 (-105)
I’m expecting some regression for the Vikings here as they face a high-quality offense in the Texans. It’s fair to say that the Vikings will be a good defense in 2024, but I don’t think we’ve seen enough to warrant such a high adjustment to their rating.
Offensively, Justin Jefferson and Aaron Jones missed practice this week but are expected to play. Nico Collins also sat on Wednesday but will suit up on Sunday.
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
More two-way line movement on a game here, looking at the total in the matchup between the Lions and the Cardinals. The total opened up here at 51.5 and jumped to 52.5 or 53 in some spots. This was then bet down mid-week and I’m not sure if I agree with that movement. I think we’re getting value here at 51.5 and this is a line I expect will move and close higher on Sunday morning.
I don’t want to get in the habit of blind betting the Cardinals over, but this team is built to play in high scoring games and we’re getting a discount here at 51.5. This is a Cardinals defense that projects to be awful in 2024. I’m not giving them any credit for holding the Rams to 10 points in Week 2.
The Rams were down both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp in this one, along with three injured offensive linemen. The Cardinals took advantage of this sacking Stafford five times. Even if you remove the Clayton Tune garbage time drive, this Cardinals team still put up 34 points in 3 quarters and they’ll have a much more competitive opponent in the Lions.
The Lions defense is much better than the Rams but is still pretty weak at cornerback. They are built around good safety play and an elite pass rusher in Aidan Hutchinson. Kyler Murray looks as healthy as ever in 2024 and his scrambling ability helps protect against the pass rush.
Bet: Lions/Cardinals OVER 51.5
The Lions offense has looked a bit out of sync in 2024, likely another reason this line is staying as low as 51.5. The Cardinals weak pass defense is a great opportunity for this Lions team to get right with a few games under their belt.
Amon-Ra will play in Week 3 as it looked like his Week 2 injury concerns were more centered around cramping and bruising during the game. This matchup screams shootout to me, and I think a better line would probably be 54.5.
