We're heading into Week 6 of the NFL season, and if you're feeling the sting of your bets not panning out, you're not alone. Sports betting Hall of Famer Johnny Avello has seen a lot in his career, but even he's shocked by how this season has started.
First to admit it was very strange to have this many underdogs just win outright was Avello, DraftKings’ Director of Race & Sportsbook Operations. “We don’t see that often,” he said, adding that it’s been rough for us who are betting moneyline betting odds and parlay odds.
A lot of us watched some of our six and seven-point favorites lose outright in the first three weeks. We usually saw early team victories from the top teams, but this season has been crazy.
Betting on the spread is a game of chance when so many big teams are falling. Last weekend, the Cowboys were a -6 favorite against the Giants. They won 20-15, and it was much closer than expected.
Throw in the fact that the Overs are low compared to what we've seen in previous seasons; things have only gotten worse. One possible reason for this? Inexperienced quarterbacks are getting thrown into games faster than ever.
In the past, rookie quarterbacks would sit behind veterans for a year or two; that's not happening anymore. "These guys are getting thrown right into the games," Avello says.
While some are stepping up, others are struggling, which is hurting the outcome of the games.
Let’s not forget about injuries. The biggest quarterbacks are all injured - Sam Darnold, Brock Purdy, and Justin Herbert, putting the performance of their respective teams in question.
Injuries have caused a lot of problems this season, especially with quarterbacks. When a quarterback's status is uncertain, the betting lines can shift by three to seven points, making it hard for bettors to profit.
It feels like no bet is secure at the moment, as every week brings new challenges and surprises.
"You cannot judge how [the sportsbook] is going to do in the NFL by the first three weeks of the season," he says. "That's not going to continue. There will be some weeks where we get dinged up pretty good. All the favorites will win for a few weeks, for sure, and maybe even more than a few, so no one knows what lies ahead.”
After such a wild start, getting discouraged is easy, but Avello offers some hope. "Things will level out," he says, suggesting that the favorites will start winning again, and we'll see scoring go up.
While we can't predict exactly when things will improve, there's a good chance that we'll see some favorites start to play better in the coming weeks. The teams we thought were titans might not be as strong as we believed. So, oddsmakers are adjusting where needed.
As a result, the lines are tightening up, and this weekend, there’s only one big favorite—the 49ers, who are -10.5 favorites at home against the Patriots.
So, what can we do? For starters, it might be time to rethink strategies. Betting on favorites has been risky business, and with underdogs winning outright, shifting focus there might be worth it.
At the same time, injuries and rookie quarterbacks are making game outcomes less predictable than ever, so staying updated with team news is important.
If you’re feeling burned by the start of the season, don’t lose hope. As Avello wisely points out, “… there’s going to be some weeks where we get dinged up pretty good. All the favorites will win for a few weeks, for sure.”
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Jessica is a graduate of Economics. She’s passionate about corporate finance, private equity and investment banking. In her spare time, she writes about finance, cryptocurrency and the US iGaming markets. She keeps her finger on the pulse of the US sports betting and iGaming markets and covers major news events for EatWatchBet.