Robinhood Is Growing Faster Than Any Prediction Market Platform — Up 983% Year-Over-Year

Robinhood is not the biggest name in prediction markets. Not even close. But according to new data from Blask, the retail brokerage giant is growing faster in this space than any other platform in the country — and that gap in growth rate is worth paying attention to.

Blask, an AI-powered iGaming analytics firm that tracks real user demand rather than just trading volume, published findings showing that Robinhood recorded a year-over-year demand increase of 983.4 percent in the U.S. prediction market space. That number is striking. Its actual market share remains modest — just 0.24 percent of total branded demand — but the trajectory is something no one in the industry is ignoring.

A Market Still Dominated by Two Players

Blask’s data makes clear that the prediction market landscape in the United States is effectively a two-horse race, at least for now. As of March 2026, Polymarket and Kalshi together accounted for approximately 94 percent of all branded demand in U.S. prediction markets. Both platforms have strengthened their positions during the current growth period, increasing their respective market shares even as the overall category expanded.

The geographic concentration tells a similar story. In Kansas, Polymarket controls 95.5 percent of branded demand compared to Kalshi’s 3.5 percent — the most extreme imbalance in any single state. Louisiana shows the closest competition, with Polymarket at 59 percent and Kalshi at 35.3 percent. Everywhere else, the duopoly holds firmly.

Beyond Polymarket and Kalshi, challengers account for just six percent of total branded demand combined. Myriad ranks as the closest competitor, holding under one percent share. Robinhood sits in early-stage territory at 0.24 percent — but growing at a pace that no established player can match.

How Robinhood Got Into Prediction Markets

Robinhood made its first move into prediction markets in October 2024, launching contracts tied to the U.S. presidential election. The reception was significant enough that the company expanded into sports and general yes/no event contracts in the months that followed. By August 2025, Robinhood had added pro and college football contracts — a move that more than doubled the number of event contracts traded on the platform sequentially, reaching 2.3 billion in Q3 2025 alone.

The momentum continued into Q4 2025, when Robinhood processed 2.5 billion prediction market contract trades in October alone — more than the entirety of Q3 and implying roughly 3x sequential growth. For the full year 2025, the company traded approximately 12 billion event contracts total. CEO Vlad Tenev called the prediction market segment the fastest-growing business in the company’s history, and Robinhood reported a revenue run rate of over $300 million for the segment in its first full year of operation.

Why the Growth Rate Matters More Than the Market Share

The Blask data captures something that raw volume figures do not: actual user demand signals derived from open-source behavioral data. At 0.24 percent, Robinhood is still a fringe player in prediction markets by any absolute measure. But a 983.4 percent year-over-year growth rate in user demand — without a comparable macro catalyst like a presidential election driving that interest — suggests the platform is building organic engagement rather than riding a one-time spike.

For context, the overall U.S. prediction market category surged more than fivefold in the eight months following August 2025. Current demand levels still sit approximately 49 percent below the all-time high recorded during the November 2024 election cycle. Yet the current growth has been steady and sustained across multiple months, pointing to what Blask describes as a structural evolution of the category — a shift from episodic interest to more consistent user engagement. Robinhood appears to be capturing a meaningful slice of that new baseline demand.

What Robinhood Is Building Toward

Robinhood is not simply testing the prediction market waters. In early 2026, the company announced the formation of Rothera, a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group designed to operate an independent, CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse. That would allow Robinhood to keep a larger share of transaction fees currently shared with partners like Kalshi. The platform currently charges around two cents per contract, a fee structure that has helped attract high-frequency retail traders accustomed to low-commission equity trading.

The company also acquired MIAXdx in early 2026, adding infrastructure that supports its ambitions in regulated event-based trading. These moves suggest Robinhood’s interest in prediction markets is strategic and long-term, not a product experiment it can easily walk back.

Traditional sportsbook operators and established prediction market platforms alike are watching closely. As Robinhood lowers the barrier to trading event contracts through a familiar brokerage interface — already trusted by millions of retail investors — the line between financial speculation and sports wagering continues to blur. Whether that creates a new lane for Robinhood or positions it on a collision course with regulators remains an open question. What the Blask data confirms is that users are showing up, and they are showing up fast. Curious how regulated betting exchanges already operating in the U.S. compare? That landscape is shifting quickly too.