Analysts Assess Italy’s Two-Horse iGaming Race as Flutter Eyes Lottomatica’s Top Spot

Italy’s online gambling market is shaping up as a two-horse race, and new analysis from investment bank Jefferies suggests Flutter Entertainment could be closing in on market leader Lottomatica faster than expected. The battle centers on whether Flutter’s playbook for its SNAI brand can mirror the success it found with Sisal, another Italian operator it previously acquired.

Lottomatica currently holds roughly 30% of Italian online gross gaming revenue (GGR) in the first quarter, according to Jefferies, with Flutter’s combined Sisal and SNAI operations sitting close behind at 27%. That narrow gap has turned attention toward SNAI’s performance under Flutter’s ownership, since any recovery there could be enough to push Flutter past Lottomatica for the top spot.

Flutter’s Sisal Blueprint

Flutter’s history with Sisal offers a clear template for what it hopes to replicate. Since acquiring Sisal in August 2022, Flutter has grown the brand’s online GGR share from around 10% to 13%, picking up roughly three percentage points across both online sports betting and iGaming. Jefferies noted that Sisal has outgrown Lottomatica’s online business in seven of the past eight quarters under Flutter’s control, and has beaten Lottomatica in iGaming growth in each of the last eight.

SNAI, by contrast, has been losing ground. Jefferies calculates the brand has shed around four percentage points of online market share in recent years. If Flutter can simply claw back what SNAI has lost, that alone could be enough to overtake Lottomatica.

Flutter CEO Peter Jackson pointed to early signs of a turnaround on the company’s Q2 earnings call, saying Italy delivered “exceptional levels of growth” across sportsbook and iGaming. The company did face a bump when it migrated SNAI onto its own platform in April, which Jackson described as causing a “brief period of share loss.” That dip appears to have reversed quickly, with active monthly players increasing 30% in June and strong parlay engagement during the World Cup.

Jefferies’ own market data, which runs through June, still showed SNAI’s sports betting and iGaming shares declining with “no material sign” of a turnaround at that point — though the report also flagged the completed platform migration as the likely catalyst for exactly the kind of rebound Flutter is now describing.

Why Italy Matters So Much

The stakes go beyond bragging rights. Jefferies estimates Italy’s total gambling GGR at €22.6 billion for 2025, making it Europe’s largest gambling market. Online penetration sits at just 28%, compared to 61% in the UK, leaving substantial room for growth — Jefferies projects a 9% compound annual growth rate for online GGR in Italy between 2025 and 2030.

Italy’s strict advertising restrictions also tend to favor established, omnichannel operators with strong retail footprints and brand recognition, rather than newer digital-first entrants. Compounding that advantage, regulatory reform has trimmed the number of available online licenses from 81 down to 52, a shift that could further consolidate power among the largest operators — exactly the kind of environment where Flutter’s newly expanded retail presence via SNAI could pay off. Acquiring SNAI reportedly lifted Flutter’s retail sports betting share from 12% to 32%, a meaningful edge in a market where retail locations still drive significant customer acquisition. Bettors tracking how major operators jockey for position across markets can find sportsbook reviews for some of the biggest global brands in the space.

Lottomatica Isn’t Ceding Ground

Lottomatica, however, is far from standing still. CEO Guglielmo Angelozzi told analysts the broader Italian online market grew 12% in the second quarter, accelerating to 19% in June, and said Lottomatica continued gaining share across sports betting, iGaming, and its overall online business during that stretch.

“In a mix of organic growth and M&A, we’ve gone from a marginal operator to the largest operator in the market,” Angelozzi said. Lottomatica’s online revenue rose 24% in Q2 and 25% on a normalized basis, with online adjusted EBITDA margins reaching 58% in the first half of the year — figures that underscore just how profitable its current position remains.

Lottomatica has its own migration success story to point to as well. Its Planetwin365 brand has seen its sports betting share climb above pre-migration levels, with chief financial officer Laurence Van Lancker citing a 0.2 percentage point gain, while iGaming has recovered roughly half of what it previously lost.

That experience appears to be shaping Lottomatica’s response to Flutter’s push. Rather than chasing share at any cost, company executives stressed a focus on sustainable, profitable growth. “The point is not only acquiring market share, but acquiring quality market share at a sustainable cost,” Angelozzi said, while Van Lancker echoed the emphasis on promotional discipline over aggressive spending.

What Comes Next

The coming quarters should offer a clearer read on which company’s approach wins out. Lottomatica is trying to defend its lead while protecting unusually strong margins, while Flutter is betting that its global product and technology playbook — already proven with Sisal — can be repeated with SNAI. Jefferies’ analysts frame it simply: Flutter doesn’t need a new success story in Italy, just a repeat of the one it already wrote with Sisal.

One month of strong player growth for SNAI isn’t proof that its multi-year decline has reversed for good, but it’s enough to make Italy’s market-share battle one of the more interesting storylines to watch in European iGaming through the rest of the year.