The most competitive series in the NBA’s conference semifinals lies in the Western Conference. Denver surprised the NBA’s best regular-season team – the Oklahoma City Thunder – in the series opener and has kept this series entertaining throughout.
Now, the Nuggets trail 3-2 after dropping a road game against Oklahoma City on Tuesday night. That’s despite Nikola Jokic posting his second 40-point, 15-rebound effort of this series against the Thunder.
Conversely, Oklahoma City can close out this contest. The Thunder finished as the Western Conference’s top seed for the second straight season, and the franchise is looking to make its first trip to the conference finals since 2016.
While I don’t normally tout my stats, my predictions in this series have been accurate 75 percent of the time. Let’s improve that percentage with my top three best player prop bets and an overall best bet for tonight’s matchup.
Oklahoma City Thunder PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander UNDER 30.5 Points
To win Game 5, the Thunder needed late-game heroics from MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The 6-foot-6 player nailed a late three-point shot – his only trifecta during the past two outings – to seal their 112-105 victory.
That’s been an issue for the entire postseason. SGA has made only 12 of the 50 three-point shots he’s attempted during the playoffs. It’s kept him from reaching his NBA-best 32.7-point scoring average in six of the nine postseason contests this year. Expect it to hurt him once again in Denver, keeping him from reaching his scoring prop bet on Thursday.
| Player | Prop | Price |
|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Over 33.5 Points | |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Under 33.5 Points | |
Denver Nuggets C Nikola Jokic UNDER 51.5 Pts + Reb + Ast
The other MVP candidate in Thursday’s game is a three-time winner of the award. Jokic showed why he’s a favorite to win it again this year with his Game 5 totals: 44 points, 15 rebounds, five assists.
That effort was only his third time in 12 postseason games, eclipsing 50 total points, rebounds, and assists in a game. For that reason alone, bettors should take the under on his combo prop bet. He’s another reason to take the under: he’s produced those three outlandish stat totals in Nuggets’ road games.
Live player props data coming soon for Nikola Jokic.
Oklahoma City Thunder PF Chet Holmgren OVER 8.5 Rebounds
The Thunder shot an incredible 50 percent from the field on Tuesday, eliminating some of their big men’s opportunities to pad their rebounding stats. That’s one reason why 7-foot-1 power forward Chet Holmgren finished with just eight boards in Game 5.
Don’t expect Oklahoma City to shoot that well in Denver. In their previous two trips, the Thunder shot below 39 percent from the field, creating multiple opportunities for rebounds. Holmgren will get his opportunities to collect boards, and he’ll finish with at least 9 rebounds to cover this prop wager.
| Player | Prop | Price |
|---|
| Chet Holmgren | Over 8.5 Rebounds | |
| Chet Holmgren | Under 9.5 Rebounds | |
Best Bet: Denver (+5)
The Nuggets were 10-point underdogs on Tuesday, covering the spread for the fourth time in five games against the Thunder. Outside of a Game 2 collapse, Denver has shown its ability to make these games close.
Expect the Nuggets to do the same thing with the series returning to the Mile High City. Denver isn’t ready to end their season, and the franchise will force a decisive Game 7 in Oklahoma City on Saturday night.
