Pacers vs Knicks Prediction: Summer League Day 9 Pick in Las Vegas

The NBA Summer League slate rolls on in Las Vegas, and Thursday afternoon brings an Eastern Conference matchup with plenty of storylines: the Indiana Pacers take on the New York Knicks at Thomas & Mack Center, with tip-off set for 4:30 p.m. ET. It’s worth remembering that Summer League rosters look nothing like the regular-season squads — these are mostly rookies, two-way hopefuls, and fringe prospects trying to make an impression, not the stars fans see in the fall. Both teams enter Day 9 looking to snap out of early-tournament funks. The Pacers sit at 1-3 through their first four games in Las Vegas, while the Knicks are 1-2 and still searching for consistent scoring punch. Neither club has found much rhythm yet, which makes this one of the more intriguing “which flaws get exposed first” matchups of the week.

What the Betting Market Is Saying

Oddsmakers have installed the Pacers as modest favorites for this one, with Indiana at -1.5 (-110) on the spread and New York getting +1.5 (-110). On the moneyline, the Pacers are priced at -125 and the Knicks at +105, reflecting a tight, close-to-a-coinflip expectation. The total sits at 188.5, a number that speaks to how both offenses have struggled at times in Vegas — New York in particular has had stretches where its shot creation dried up completely. Bettors weighing DraftKings promo code offers or comparing lines at other books should note this line has stayed fairly stable, suggesting the market isn’t overreacting to either team’s shaky start to the week.

Inside the Numbers for Both Rosters

Indiana’s Summer League group has been middling defensively, allowing opponents to hang 100.2 points per game while scoring 95.8 of their own, numbers that reflect a young roster still figuring out rotations. Second-round pick Braden Smith, the former Purdue floor general, has been the headline addition, running the point and racking up assists even while his shooting has been inconsistent — he tallied 16 points, five assists, two rebounds and two steals in Indiana’s overtime loss to Philadelphia, then followed with an eight-point, eight-assist, six-rebound effort in a loss to Minnesota. Jalen Slawson has quietly been Indiana’s most productive scorer, dropping a team-high 26 points in that 76ers game, while Keion Brooks Jr. and Taelon Peter have chipped in double-digit scoring nights of their own. The Pacers need more consistent shot-making if they want to avoid a fifth loss in five outings.

New York’s Summer League roster has been even more offensively challenged, averaging just 66.7 points per game through three contests — easily the lowest scoring output of any team in Las Vegas this week. Pacome Dadiet has been the bright spot, pouring in 20 points on 6-of-16 shooting, including 4-of-4 from the free-throw line, in New York’s loss to Brooklyn. Dillon Jones has provided a steady floor presence with rebounding and playmaking, while Jaden Akins and Mohamed Diawara round out a rotation still trying to find its footing. The Knicks’ shooting numbers have been rough across the board, and unless that changes quickly, points will continue to be hard to come by against Indiana’s frontcourt length.

Both teams have leaned heavily on their guards to create offense, and how each backcourt handles pressure could decide this game. Indiana’s ability to get out in transition off Smith’s playmaking gives them an edge in pace, while New York’s need to generate quality looks in the half-court has been the club’s biggest issue through its first three games. If the Knicks can’t find easy buckets, this could turn into a low-scoring grind that favors the side with better shot discipline — which, based on the numbers so far, points to Indiana.

Depth could also play a factor late in this one. Summer League rosters run deep with two-way hopefuls looking for any chance to stand out, and both Indiana and New York have used bench minutes to test different lineup combinations rather than lock in a set rotation. That experimentation can lead to uneven scoring stretches, particularly for a Knicks team still searching for its best five-man unit. Indiana’s willingness to keep feeding Smith in ball-handling reps, even through shooting slumps, suggests coach continuity matters more than box-score efficiency at this stage — a long-term development approach that should serve the Pacers well as the tournament progresses, even if it occasionally costs them a possession or two in a tight game like this.

Prediction and Best Bet

Indiana’s higher scoring average and slightly deeper frontcourt rotation give the Pacers the edge in a game that projects to be close throughout. New York’s offensive struggles are the biggest swing factor — if Dadiet and Jones can’t consistently create good looks, the Knicks may simply not have enough firepower to keep pace down the stretch.

• Prediction: Indiana Pacers 96, New York Knicks 89
• Best Bet: Pacers -1.5

The Pacers’ scoring average and more balanced group of contributors make them the better side to trust in a tight spread, especially against a Knicks offense that has yet to find any real consistency in Las Vegas.