The NBA Playoffs have been anything but predictable this year. After road teams stole the first six contests of the second round, bettors have been flummoxed by the roller-coaster ride that Eastern and Western conference semifinals have provided.
That holds true for the semifinal featuring the Denver Nuggets and the Oklahoma City Thunder. Denver shocked the top-seed Thunder in the series opener, and the Nuggets also won their first home contest against Oklahoma City.
With the series shifting back to the Thunder’s home court, can the Nuggets continue to hold their own? We’ll cover that and provide bettors with our top three player prop bets for Tuesday’s Western Conference semifinal contest.
| Player | Prop | Price |
|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Over 33.5 Points | |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Under 33.5 Points | |
Oklahoma City Thunder PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 30.5 Points
Scoring 25 points in a postseason game is a strong accomplishment … unless you’re Oklahoma City point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Thunder’s leading scorer has four games this postseason where he’s finished with 31 or more points.
Still, he’s scored only 43 combined points in the previous two games. It’s been a long time since SGA has finished with fewer than 31 points in three straight games.
You’d have to go back to November to find a stretch where the point guard was held to under 30 points for three consecutive outings. That’s why savvy bettors will take the over on this scoring prop bet.
Live player props data coming soon for Nikola Jokic.
Denver Nuggets C Nikola Jokic OVER 50.5 Pts + Reb + Ast
It’s hard to say that center Nikola Jokic is having a quiet series, especially as he’s averaging 26.5 points, 14.8 rebounds, and 5.3 assists. Still, that’s the case compared to the MVP candidate’s triple-double averages in the regular season.
Only once in his last seven games has he finished with more than 50 points, rebounds, and assists combined. So why should bettors expect him to finish above that mark tonight? His best performances this postseason have come on the road. With the series shifting back to Oklahoma City, take the over on this combo prop bet.
| Player | Prop | Price |
|---|
| Isaiah Hartenstein | Over 6.5 Rebounds | |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | Under 6.5 Rebounds | |
Oklahoma City Thunder C Isaiah Hartenstein OVER 9.5 Rebounds
Isaiah Hartenstein has returned to the regular-season form fans have anticipated from the seven-footer. Against Denver, Hartenstein has averaged 11 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 3.3 assists to close in on his 2024-2025 averages.
In the past two outings, both the Nuggets and Thunder shot less than 45 percent from the floor, creating opportunities for this Oklahoma City big man to clean the glass. He’ll do that again on Tuesday thanks to the teams’ improved defense, covering his rebounding prop bet by finishing with at least 10 boards.
Best Bet: Denver (+10)
Three of the four games thus far have produced single-digit margins, and two of those three games were Denver wins. The only deviation was a 43-point blowout in Game 2, and that was a laugher from the start.
There’s no reason to believe Oklahoma City will replicate that performance. Denver’s defense hasn’t allowed the Thunder to shoot better than 39 percent from the floor since, and the Nuggets are a veteran group comfortable playing on the road. Expect a single-digit victory margin in Tuesday’s contest.
