For only the fourth time in nearly 50 years, the Denver Nuggets and the Oklahoma City Thunder will face off in the Western Conference playoffs. It’s also a matchup featuring two of the NBA’s top-three candidates for the MVP race.
Denver enters the series with a three-day rest, earning a Game 7 victory against the Los Angeles Clippers on Saturday. The Nuggets closed out the Clippers emphatically with this team’s best postseason performance yet.
Oklahoma City needed only four games to finish off Memphis. The Thunder rode MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the sweep of the Grizzlies, and he averaged 27.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 6.0 assists during the series.
With Oklahoma City hosting the series opener, will the Thunder or Nuggets emerge victorious on Monday? We’ll cover that and our three favorite player prop bets for this Western Conference postseason matchup.
Denver Nuggets C Nikola Jokic OVER 49.5 Pts + Reb + Ast
Three-time MVP Nikola Jokic looks primed to take the Nuggets back to the Western Conference finals. Against the Clippers, he averaged a triple-double, finishing with 24.0 points, 11.6 rebounds, and 10.1 assists in their seven-game series.
Los Angeles was a hard matchup for the 6-foot-11 athlete this season. Oklahoma City was a more favorable matchup, and he finished with a pair of strong performances against the Thunder in back-to-back games in March. Expect a similar showing tonight as he covers this combo player prop bet.
Oklahoma City Thunder SG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander UNDER 31.5 Points
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finished as the NBA’s scoring leader this year, averaging 32.7 points per night. His ability to score in bunches helped Oklahoma City to the league’s best regular-season record in runaway fashion.
Outside of one 40-point game against the Nuggets, the MVP candidate finished under 30 points each time against Denver. Bettors can expect he’ll again finish under that threshold, failing to cover this player prop bet.
Denver Nuggets PG Jamal Murray OVER 5.5 Assists
What’s often overlooked with Jokic’s triple-double average is that Nuggets guard Jamal Murray is one of the league’s best passers. He finished 19th in the NBA this season with 6.0 assists per game, the third straight season he’s averaged that many or more assists per game.
In his last series, Murray finished with six or more assists in five of the seven games, including his 43-point outburst in Game 5. Expect him to continue this trend, earning at least a half-dozen assists on Monday night.
Best Bet: Oklahoma City (-10.5)
There are reasons to believe the Nuggets will come out firing, especially after the team found its touch in their finale against the Clippers. Jokic looked strong while playing significantly fewer minutes in that decisive Game 7, and the Thunder have been idle since April 26.
Savvy bettors will avoid the “rust” considerations with this year’s Oklahoma City team. The squad has been the league’s best all year, and they will look to prove it tonight. Expect Oklahoma City to cover its double-digit spread against Denver on Monday.
