The Golden State Warriors can almost taste the next round. Jimmy Butler and Stephen Curry have played perfect basketball this series when healthy, and with the emergence of Brandin Podziemski, Houston might have a real problem.
With that being said, expect Jalen Green to come out of his shell and serve as a key playmaker tonight for Ime Udoka’s squad, who are backed against a tight corner.
Jimmy Butler (GSW) OVER 20.5 Points
There is a real chance that Jimmy Butler cements his legacy as a Play-In legend. After leading the Play-in Miami Heat to the NBA Finals a few years ago, he’s back in the same position as the 7th seed in the West.
After leading Golden State to a 5-point Play-In victory two weeks ago, this squad is just one win away from a date with either Minnesota or Los Angeles (Lakers) in Round 2. Butler has scored 25 and 27 points in his two healthy games this series. Houston has struggled to defend him from all three levels, with their focus turning to Curry and now Podziemski from beyond the arc.
There's one trend we should keep seeing in this game. Butler has gotten to the charity strike at will, going 16/18 from the line in those two healthy games. Amen Thompson and Dillon Brooks are plus defenders, but as they focus on stopping a Steph masterpiece, we will get a Butler one instead.
Brandin Podziemski (GSW) OVER 1.5 3PM
Podziemski has truly been the x-factor role player that Steve Kerr and these Warriors have desperately needed over these last few non-championship years. Podz was an extremely guard rebounder, just 51 minutes south of Chase Center at Santa Clara.
He’s continued this success with Golden State in Year 2 while heating up from behind the arc. Podz has gone for 10 threes this series while hitting 3+ twice. Steve Kerr has now trusted the sophomore with some big minutes to open the game and to close the game.
That shouldn’t change in this pivotal away Game 5 after BP filled the stat sheet in Game 4’s close victory. He’s hit two or more threes in each of the last three regular-season games against Houston.
Jalen Green (HOU) OVER 3.5 Assists
Jalen Green has looked less-than-ideal against Golden State, with his point production dropping from 21.0 in the regular season to 15.5 in four games in this series. Outside of a phenomenal 38-point Game 2, Green has failed to hit the 10-point mark in those three losses.
While JG should have a more efficient shooting night in hopes of extending this series, I’m banking on Udoka to find him open opportunities as a playmaker. Green averaged 3.4 dimes per game in the regular season and in this series, has gone for exactly 3.5.
After dishing just one assist out last game to Amen Thompson, Green should bounce back with his extreme speed and crafty ball handling skills.
