Hawks/Magic and Grizzlies/Warriors open up the NBA Playoffs on Tuesday night. The winner advances in these two Play-In games, and there’s one upset already bubbling in the Eastern Conference.
Atlanta’s offense is significantly better than Orlando’s, and in this new age of the NBA, I’m betting on the offense to outshine the defense in that rivalry matchup.
Hawks +5.5 over Magic
The Hawks and Magic split their four-game ‘24-25 season series. The point differential? +5 Atlanta. These are two teams that have struggled for some very different reasons. The Atlanta Hawks have allowed over 119 PPG, which ranks 4th-to-last in the NBA this season, while allowing opponents to shoot 37.7% from beyond the arc.
Orlando, on the other hand, has had one of the most atrocious offenses in the league, with pundits calling for Jamahl Mosley to be placed on the hot seat with how poorly their sets are run. Orlando averages the 3rd-least PPG at 105.4 this season (only Brooklyn and Charlotte are worse). Their offensive efficiency sits in the bottom five of the league.
Somehow, with Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and a solid supporting cast, this team can’t figure out how to score for the life of them. Offense wins in today’s NBA, and with Dyson Daniels forcing an unbelievable number of deflections and turnovers, and loose balls, give me Atlanta to either make the upset or get this game within one possession down the stretch.
Warriors -7.5 over Grizzlies
While the Warriors are trying to end their Play-In woes (0-3 all time), the Grizzlies are trying to save what once was a successful season a few months ago. After Rory McIlroy’s long-awaited Masters victory, the Warriors should be able to avenge their own losses in this spot-on Tuesday night on a much smaller scale at home.
The Warriors are 3-1 against Memphis this season with the only loss coming with a starting lineup of Curry/Schroder/Wiggins/Green/Looney. Give me the Curry/Podz/Butler/Moody/Green lineup to dominate in the Bay against Ja and company.
| Player | Prop | Price |
|---|
| Brandin Podziemski | Over 18.5 Points/Rebounds | |
| Brandin Podziemski | Under 18.5 Points/Rebounds | |
Brandin Podziemski (GSW) OVER 22.5 Points & Rebounds
Podz is the x-factor for Golden State during the Play-In and potentially their playoff run. The Santa Clara product has been on a tear since the All-Star break averaging 15.3 PPG on 46/44/84 shooting splits.
Kerr has inserted BP into the starting lineup, and it’s really paid off both in the box score and via the eye test. He moves well without the ball and can really rebound the basketball at a high level for a guard.
In three games against Memphis this season, he’s scored only 13.3 PPG while grabbing 5.3 boards per game. With that being said, the attention on Butler and Curry will once again open up opportunities for Podz, who will be able to take on the Ja Morant matchup on the offensive end.
